With the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections approaching, traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that the leading House candidate on November 2 will prevail. This consensus reflects the typical stability of late-campaign dynamics, where established polling leads, fundraising advantages, and voter identification patterns rarely reverse in the final days absent major unforeseen events. Historical base rates show frontrunners winning the large majority of congressional races once within 48 hours of Election Day. Key factors sustaining the current odds include consistent polling trends across battleground districts, limited late-cycle shifts in turnout models, and the absence of disqualifying developments that have altered outcomes in prior cycles. Upcoming early voting data and final campaign events could still introduce volatility before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated93% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
93% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party with the higher hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026 wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for a party for the specified window, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for a party (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used.
If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.With the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections approaching, traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that the leading House candidate on November 2 will prevail. This consensus reflects the typical stability of late-campaign dynamics, where established polling leads, fundraising advantages, and voter identification patterns rarely reverse in the final days absent major unforeseen events. Historical base rates show frontrunners winning the large majority of congressional races once within 48 hours of Election Day. Key factors sustaining the current odds include consistent polling trends across battleground districts, limited late-cycle shifts in turnout models, and the absence of disqualifying developments that have altered outcomes in prior cycles. Upcoming early voting data and final campaign events could still introduce volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party with the higher hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026 wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for a party for the specified window, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for a party (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used.
If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for a party for the specified window, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for a party (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used.
If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$8,565End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party with the higher hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026 wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for a party for the specified window, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for a party (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used.
If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.With the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections approaching, traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that the leading House candidate on November 2 will prevail. This consensus reflects the typical stability of late-campaign dynamics, where established polling leads, fundraising advantages, and voter identification patterns rarely reverse in the final days absent major unforeseen events. Historical base rates show frontrunners winning the large majority of congressional races once within 48 hours of Election Day. Key factors sustaining the current odds include consistent polling trends across battleground districts, limited late-cycle shifts in turnout models, and the absence of disqualifying developments that have altered outcomes in prior cycles. Upcoming early voting data and final campaign events could still introduce volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party with the higher hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 11:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026 wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for a party for the specified window, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for a party (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used.
If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for a party for the specified window, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for a party (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that party's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for either party in the "House Control 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either party from the listing, the most recent hourly odds values published for the two parties will be used.
If the Democratic Party's and the Republican Party's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", or if no hourly odds value has been published for either party between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for the favorite is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html and on each party's detail page, reached by clicking the party's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered. The resolution sources for control of the House will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,565End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections approaching, traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that the leading House candidate on November 2 will prevail. This consensus reflects the typical stability of late-campaign dynamics, where established polling leads, fundraising advantages, and voter identification patterns rarely reverse in the final days absent major unforeseen events. Historical base rates show frontrunners winning the large majority of congressional races once within 48 hours of Election Day. Key factors sustaining the current odds include consistent polling trends across battleground districts, limited late-cycle shifts in turnout models, and the absence of disqualifying developments that have altered outcomes in prior cycles. Upcoming early voting data and final campaign events could still introduce volatility before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions