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World·Bulgaria

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
World·Bulgaria

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

12% chance
Polymarket
NEW
12% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).Bulgaria’s presidential election on October 25 uses a two-round system requiring an absolute majority plus turnout above 50 percent for an outright first-round victory; no candidate has achieved this since the system’s introduction. Incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by the dominant Progressive Bulgaria party after its April 2026 parliamentary landslide, leads recent Global Metrics polling at roughly 40 percent but trails the combined remainder of a fragmented field that now includes at least ten registered candidate pairs following the September 22 nomination deadline. Historical patterns, low expected turnout near past levels around 40 percent, and vote splitting among opposition and smaller parties continue to anchor trader expectations that the contest will advance to a November 1 runoff.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$170
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).Bulgaria’s presidential election on October 25 uses a two-round system requiring an absolute majority plus turnout above 50 percent for an outright first-round victory; no candidate has achieved this since the system’s introduction. Incumbent Iliana Iotova, backed by the dominant Progressive Bulgaria party after its April 2026 parliamentary landslide, leads recent Global Metrics polling at roughly 40 percent but trails the combined remainder of a fragmented field that now includes at least ten registered candidate pairs following the September 22 nomination deadline. Historical patterns, low expected turnout near past levels around 40 percent, and vote splitting among opposition and smaller parties continue to anchor trader expectations that the contest will advance to a November 1 runoff.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026, with a second round on November 1, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes in the first round, or if a candidate secures more than half of the valid votes but voter turnout is not more than half of registered voters. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$170
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 12% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 12¢, the market collectively assigns a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?" is 12% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 12% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.