Hong Kong’s August rainfall, historically averaging 350–500 mm under the influence of the southwest monsoon, troughs, and occasional tropical cyclones, stands at roughly 125 mm through August 9, 2026, per Hong Kong Observatory data. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, yet active southerly flow and potential late-month systems could deliver additional heavy showers or thunderstorms. Trader sentiment clusters around 650–700 mm and higher bins because second-half intensification—driven by monsoon surges or cyclone tracks—can rapidly add 300+ mm, while drier steering patterns would keep totals closer to 450–525 mm. Model consensus on steering and moisture flux remains the key near-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
22%
425-450mm
13%
450-475mm
28%
475-500mm
21%
500-525mm
24%
525-550mm
23%
550-600mm
23%
600-650mm
19%
650-700mm
27%
700mm+
30%
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$2,085 Vol.
22%
425-450mm
$248 Vol.
13%
450-475mm
$177 Vol.
28%
475-500mm
$123 Vol.
21%
500-525mm
$145 Vol.
24%
525-550mm
$198 Vol.
23%
550-600mm
$161 Vol.
23%
600-650mm
$280 Vol.
19%
650-700mm
$227 Vol.
27%
700mm+
$1,264 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong’s August rainfall, historically averaging 350–500 mm under the influence of the southwest monsoon, troughs, and occasional tropical cyclones, stands at roughly 125 mm through August 9, 2026, per Hong Kong Observatory data. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, yet active southerly flow and potential late-month systems could deliver additional heavy showers or thunderstorms. Trader sentiment clusters around 650–700 mm and higher bins because second-half intensification—driven by monsoon surges or cyclone tracks—can rapidly add 300+ mm, while drier steering patterns would keep totals closer to 450–525 mm. Model consensus on steering and moisture flux remains the key near-term variable.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,907End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong’s August rainfall, historically averaging 350–500 mm under the influence of the southwest monsoon, troughs, and occasional tropical cyclones, stands at roughly 125 mm through August 9, 2026, per Hong Kong Observatory data. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, yet active southerly flow and potential late-month systems could deliver additional heavy showers or thunderstorms. Trader sentiment clusters around 650–700 mm and higher bins because second-half intensification—driven by monsoon surges or cyclone tracks—can rapidly add 300+ mm, while drier steering patterns would keep totals closer to 450–525 mm. Model consensus on steering and moisture flux remains the key near-term variable.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,907End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong’s August rainfall, historically averaging 350–500 mm under the influence of the southwest monsoon, troughs, and occasional tropical cyclones, stands at roughly 125 mm through August 9, 2026, per Hong Kong Observatory data. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, yet active southerly flow and potential late-month systems could deliver additional heavy showers or thunderstorms. Trader sentiment clusters around 650–700 mm and higher bins because second-half intensification—driven by monsoon surges or cyclone tracks—can rapidly add 300+ mm, while drier steering patterns would keep totals closer to 450–525 mm. Model consensus on steering and moisture flux remains the key near-term variable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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