Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August rainfall reflects genuine uncertainty in the second half of the month, with leading buckets clustered near historical normals (around 400 mm) and potential extremes above 700 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, while recent patterns show frequent showers and thunderstorms typical of the monsoon trough and peak typhoon season. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether additional tropical cyclones or enhanced monsoon activity develop, as these can deliver 200+ mm in single events; current short-range models and steering patterns remain variable, keeping probabilities tightly matched between moderate and high-outcome scenarios through the final two weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
22%
425-450mm
12%
450-475mm
27%
475-500mm
23%
500-525mm
25%
525-550mm
23%
550-600mm
23%
600-650mm
19%
650-700mm
28%
700mm+
31%
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$2,085 Vol.
22%
425-450mm
$248 Vol.
12%
450-475mm
$177 Vol.
27%
475-500mm
$123 Vol.
23%
500-525mm
$145 Vol.
25%
525-550mm
$198 Vol.
23%
550-600mm
$161 Vol.
23%
600-650mm
$280 Vol.
19%
650-700mm
$227 Vol.
28%
700mm+
$1,264 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August rainfall reflects genuine uncertainty in the second half of the month, with leading buckets clustered near historical normals (around 400 mm) and potential extremes above 700 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, while recent patterns show frequent showers and thunderstorms typical of the monsoon trough and peak typhoon season. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether additional tropical cyclones or enhanced monsoon activity develop, as these can deliver 200+ mm in single events; current short-range models and steering patterns remain variable, keeping probabilities tightly matched between moderate and high-outcome scenarios through the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,892End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August rainfall reflects genuine uncertainty in the second half of the month, with leading buckets clustered near historical normals (around 400 mm) and potential extremes above 700 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, while recent patterns show frequent showers and thunderstorms typical of the monsoon trough and peak typhoon season. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether additional tropical cyclones or enhanced monsoon activity develop, as these can deliver 200+ mm in single events; current short-range models and steering patterns remain variable, keeping probabilities tightly matched between moderate and high-outcome scenarios through the final two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,892End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s August rainfall reflects genuine uncertainty in the second half of the month, with leading buckets clustered near historical normals (around 400 mm) and potential extremes above 700 mm. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals for August–October amid neutral ENSO conditions, while recent patterns show frequent showers and thunderstorms typical of the monsoon trough and peak typhoon season. Differentiation among bins hinges on whether additional tropical cyclones or enhanced monsoon activity develop, as these can deliver 200+ mm in single events; current short-range models and steering patterns remain variable, keeping probabilities tightly matched between moderate and high-outcome scenarios through the final two weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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