Traders see elevated odds for above-average August rainfall in Hong Kong, with 700 mm+ leading at 30 percent amid closely bunched probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone frequency and southwest monsoon intensity. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals, consistent with 1991–2020 climatology of roughly 400–450 mm, but active monsoon trough positioning and any late-month typhoon tracks could push accumulations well higher, as seen in the 939 mm recorded in 2025. Current mid-August conditions show frequent showers and amber warnings, with model consensus indicating continued moisture influx rather than a pronounced dry spell. Key resolution hinges on whether additional systems develop before month-end, a factor that keeps the distribution broad across the 425–700 mm range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
29%
425-450mm
13%
450-475mm
23%
475-500mm
19%
500-525mm
21%
525-550mm
22%
550-600mm
20%
600-650mm
19%
650-700mm
27%
700mm+
31%
700mm+ 39%
650-700mm 34%
600-650mm 30.1%
<425mm 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$2,085 Vol.
29%
425-450mm
$248 Vol.
13%
450-475mm
$177 Vol.
23%
475-500mm
$123 Vol.
19%
500-525mm
$145 Vol.
21%
525-550mm
$198 Vol.
22%
550-600mm
$161 Vol.
20%
600-650mm
$280 Vol.
19%
650-700mm
$227 Vol.
27%
700mm+
$1,264 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders see elevated odds for above-average August rainfall in Hong Kong, with 700 mm+ leading at 30 percent amid closely bunched probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone frequency and southwest monsoon intensity. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals, consistent with 1991–2020 climatology of roughly 400–450 mm, but active monsoon trough positioning and any late-month typhoon tracks could push accumulations well higher, as seen in the 939 mm recorded in 2025. Current mid-August conditions show frequent showers and amber warnings, with model consensus indicating continued moisture influx rather than a pronounced dry spell. Key resolution hinges on whether additional systems develop before month-end, a factor that keeps the distribution broad across the 425–700 mm range.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,907End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders see elevated odds for above-average August rainfall in Hong Kong, with 700 mm+ leading at 30 percent amid closely bunched probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone frequency and southwest monsoon intensity. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals, consistent with 1991–2020 climatology of roughly 400–450 mm, but active monsoon trough positioning and any late-month typhoon tracks could push accumulations well higher, as seen in the 939 mm recorded in 2025. Current mid-August conditions show frequent showers and amber warnings, with model consensus indicating continued moisture influx rather than a pronounced dry spell. Key resolution hinges on whether additional systems develop before month-end, a factor that keeps the distribution broad across the 425–700 mm range.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,907End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see elevated odds for above-average August rainfall in Hong Kong, with 700 mm+ leading at 30 percent amid closely bunched probabilities, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone frequency and southwest monsoon intensity. The Hong Kong Observatory’s late-July seasonal outlook favors near-normal totals, consistent with 1991–2020 climatology of roughly 400–450 mm, but active monsoon trough positioning and any late-month typhoon tracks could push accumulations well higher, as seen in the 939 mm recorded in 2025. Current mid-August conditions show frequent showers and amber warnings, with model consensus indicating continued moisture influx rather than a pronounced dry spell. Key resolution hinges on whether additional systems develop before month-end, a factor that keeps the distribution broad across the 425–700 mm range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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