Hana Ghassan holds the leading trader consensus at 58.5% in the Pará gubernatorial race as the current vice governor positioned to assume the office ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round and potential October 25 runoff. She benefits from the strong endorsement and state machinery of term-limited incumbent Helder Barbalho of the MDB, along with a broad coalition spanning center-left and center-right parties that delivered his prior victories. Multiple other declared and potential candidates remain clustered near 50% or lower, reflecting a fragmented field where opposition parties, including Bolsonarista groups, have yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. The tight positioning stems from limited recent polling differentiation, pre-campaign positioning, and the structural advantage of incumbency in a state with diverse voting blocs. Further separation could emerge from formal party conventions, coalition negotiations, or shifts in regional issues such as agribusiness policy and Amazon governance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPará Governor Election Winner
Pará Governor Election Winner
Hana Ghassan 59%
Dr. Daniel Santos 41%
Paulo Rocha 1.7%
Éder Mauro 1.1%
$27,360 Vol.
$27,360 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Hana Ghassan
59%
Dr. Daniel Santos
41%
Paulo Rocha
2%
Éder Mauro
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
<1%
Hana Ghassan 59%
Dr. Daniel Santos 41%
Paulo Rocha 1.7%
Éder Mauro 1.1%
$27,360 Vol.
$27,360 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Hana Ghassan
$11,810 Vol.
59%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$8,576 Vol.
41%
Paulo Rocha
$1,078 Vol.
2%
Éder Mauro
$3,216 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$923 Vol.
1%
Rogério Barra
$909 Vol.
<1%
Zequinha Marinho
$848 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan holds the leading trader consensus at 58.5% in the Pará gubernatorial race as the current vice governor positioned to assume the office ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round and potential October 25 runoff. She benefits from the strong endorsement and state machinery of term-limited incumbent Helder Barbalho of the MDB, along with a broad coalition spanning center-left and center-right parties that delivered his prior victories. Multiple other declared and potential candidates remain clustered near 50% or lower, reflecting a fragmented field where opposition parties, including Bolsonarista groups, have yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. The tight positioning stems from limited recent polling differentiation, pre-campaign positioning, and the structural advantage of incumbency in a state with diverse voting blocs. Further separation could emerge from formal party conventions, coalition negotiations, or shifts in regional issues such as agribusiness policy and Amazon governance.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$27,360End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan holds the leading trader consensus at 58.5% in the Pará gubernatorial race as the current vice governor positioned to assume the office ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round and potential October 25 runoff. She benefits from the strong endorsement and state machinery of term-limited incumbent Helder Barbalho of the MDB, along with a broad coalition spanning center-left and center-right parties that delivered his prior victories. Multiple other declared and potential candidates remain clustered near 50% or lower, reflecting a fragmented field where opposition parties, including Bolsonarista groups, have yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. The tight positioning stems from limited recent polling differentiation, pre-campaign positioning, and the structural advantage of incumbency in a state with diverse voting blocs. Further separation could emerge from formal party conventions, coalition negotiations, or shifts in regional issues such as agribusiness policy and Amazon governance.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$27,360End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan holds the leading trader consensus at 58.5% in the Pará gubernatorial race as the current vice governor positioned to assume the office ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round and potential October 25 runoff. She benefits from the strong endorsement and state machinery of term-limited incumbent Helder Barbalho of the MDB, along with a broad coalition spanning center-left and center-right parties that delivered his prior victories. Multiple other declared and potential candidates remain clustered near 50% or lower, reflecting a fragmented field where opposition parties, including Bolsonarista groups, have yet to consolidate behind a single challenger. The tight positioning stems from limited recent polling differentiation, pre-campaign positioning, and the structural advantage of incumbency in a state with diverse voting blocs. Further separation could emerge from formal party conventions, coalition negotiations, or shifts in regional issues such as agribusiness policy and Amazon governance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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