Skip to main content
icon for Zambia Presidential Election Winner
Politics·Main Election

Zambia Presidential Election Winner

icon for Zambia Presidential Election Winner
Politics·Main Election

Zambia Presidential Election Winner

Hakainde Hichilema 82.4%

Brian Mundubile 18.3%

Fred M'membe <1%

Polymarket

$188,854 Vol.

Hakainde Hichilema 82.4%

Brian Mundubile 18.3%

Fred M'membe <1%

Polymarket

$188,854 Vol.

icon for Hakainde Hichilema

Hakainde Hichilema

$93,018 Vol.

82%

icon for Brian Mundubile

Brian Mundubile

$75,338 Vol.

18%

icon for Fred M'membe

Fred M'membe

$20,498 Vol.

<1%

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema holds an 82.9% implied probability as the 2026 Zambia presidential election winner, reflecting trader consensus on his incumbency advantages and the United Party for National Development's organizational strength ahead of the August 13 vote. Economic reforms following the pandemic-era debt crisis, alongside a split opposition field of 14 candidates, underpin this positioning, even as cost-of-living pressures tested support. Brian Mundubile, leading the Tonse Alliance of opposition parties and polling as the primary challenger at 17.8%, has consolidated some anti-incumbent sentiment but faces structural barriers from fragmented rivals. Lower-probability options, including Fred M'membe and others at or below 0.1%, align with limited national reach in a contest where results are pending. Upcoming official tallies could still influence final resolution if margins prove narrow.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).
Volume
$188,854
End Date
Aug 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema holds an 82.9% implied probability as the 2026 Zambia presidential election winner, reflecting trader consensus on his incumbency advantages and the United Party for National Development's organizational strength ahead of the August 13 vote. Economic reforms following the pandemic-era debt crisis, alongside a split opposition field of 14 candidates, underpin this positioning, even as cost-of-living pressures tested support. Brian Mundubile, leading the Tonse Alliance of opposition parties and polling as the primary challenger at 17.8%, has consolidated some anti-incumbent sentiment but faces structural barriers from fragmented rivals. Lower-probability options, including Fred M'membe and others at or below 0.1%, align with limited national reach in a contest where results are pending. Upcoming official tallies could still influence final resolution if margins prove narrow.

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).
Volume
$188,854
End Date
Aug 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Zambia on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Zambian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Zambian government sources, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (www.elections.org.zm/).

Related

icon for Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?

Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?

49%
icon for Will UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?

Will UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?

97%
icon for Will NRPUP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?

Will NRPUP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?

99%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Zambia Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Hakainde Hichilema" at 82%, followed by "Brian Mundubile" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Zambia Presidential Election Winner" has generated $188.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Zambia Presidential Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Zambia Presidential Election Winner" is "Hakainde Hichilema" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Brian Mundubile" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Zambia Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.