Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the leading implied probability in the Maranhão gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads and structural advantages heading into the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent surveys, including RealTime Big Data and Veritá releases from July and early August, show him at 44% or higher in stimulated first-round scenarios, well ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at around 31% and trailing candidates such as Felipe Camarão (PT) in single digits. A documented rift within the center-left governing coalition has fragmented support for the incumbent-aligned ticket, while Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty and ongoing consolidation of opposition backing have strengthened his position. Traders price in his frontrunner status while assigning lower probabilities to alternatives that would require major shifts in voter coalitions or turnout patterns before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Braide 79%
Orleans Brandão 16%
Felipe Camarão 2.7%
André Luís 1.6%
$25,834 Vol.
$25,834 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Eduardo Braide
79%
Orleans Brandão
16%
Felipe Camarão
3%
André Luís
2%
Lahesio Bonfim
1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Eduardo Braide 79%
Orleans Brandão 16%
Felipe Camarão 2.7%
André Luís 1.6%
$25,834 Vol.
$25,834 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
Eduardo Braide
$12,627 Vol.
79%
Orleans Brandão
$5,018 Vol.
16%
Felipe Camarão
$1,807 Vol.
3%
André Luís
$2,110 Vol.
2%
Lahesio Bonfim
$2,007 Vol.
1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$2,265 Vol.
<1%
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the leading implied probability in the Maranhão gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads and structural advantages heading into the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent surveys, including RealTime Big Data and Veritá releases from July and early August, show him at 44% or higher in stimulated first-round scenarios, well ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at around 31% and trailing candidates such as Felipe Camarão (PT) in single digits. A documented rift within the center-left governing coalition has fragmented support for the incumbent-aligned ticket, while Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty and ongoing consolidation of opposition backing have strengthened his position. Traders price in his frontrunner status while assigning lower probabilities to alternatives that would require major shifts in voter coalitions or turnout patterns before election day.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
Volume
$25,834End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the leading implied probability in the Maranhão gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads and structural advantages heading into the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent surveys, including RealTime Big Data and Veritá releases from July and early August, show him at 44% or higher in stimulated first-round scenarios, well ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at around 31% and trailing candidates such as Felipe Camarão (PT) in single digits. A documented rift within the center-left governing coalition has fragmented support for the incumbent-aligned ticket, while Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty and ongoing consolidation of opposition backing have strengthened his position. Traders price in his frontrunner status while assigning lower probabilities to alternatives that would require major shifts in voter coalitions or turnout patterns before election day.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,834End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the leading implied probability in the Maranhão gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads and structural advantages heading into the October 4, 2026 first round. Recent surveys, including RealTime Big Data and Veritá releases from July and early August, show him at 44% or higher in stimulated first-round scenarios, well ahead of Orleans Brandão (MDB) at around 31% and trailing candidates such as Felipe Camarão (PT) in single digits. A documented rift within the center-left governing coalition has fragmented support for the incumbent-aligned ticket, while Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty and ongoing consolidation of opposition backing have strengthened his position. Traders price in his frontrunner status while assigning lower probabilities to alternatives that would require major shifts in voter coalitions or turnout patterns before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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