Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support between 6.1% and 7.5% in the run-up to the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, with the most recent Demoskop survey showing 7.5% and earlier Novus and Indikator readings clustered near 6.1%. As the smallest party in the Tidö coalition government, KD maintains a stable but narrow base rooted in its Christian democratic platform and regional strongholds, aided by leader Ebba Busch’s profile as Energy Minister on nuclear power and defense issues. The broader center-right bloc trails the Red-Green opposition in aggregate voting intention, limiting upside for smaller partners like KD while recent modest gains have kept results near the 6% threshold. This polling range underpins trader consensus on the over-6% outcome at 61% implied probability, with final turnout, campaign dynamics, and any late shifts among undecided voters still able to influence the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%?
Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Over/Under 6%?
Over
61% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Over
61% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support between 6.1% and 7.5% in the run-up to the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, with the most recent Demoskop survey showing 7.5% and earlier Novus and Indikator readings clustered near 6.1%. As the smallest party in the Tidö coalition government, KD maintains a stable but narrow base rooted in its Christian democratic platform and regional strongholds, aided by leader Ebba Busch’s profile as Energy Minister on nuclear power and defense issues. The broader center-right bloc trails the Red-Green opposition in aggregate voting intention, limiting upside for smaller partners like KD while recent modest gains have kept results near the 6% threshold. This polling range underpins trader consensus on the over-6% outcome at 61% implied probability, with final turnout, campaign dynamics, and any late shifts among undecided voters still able to influence the result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support between 6.1% and 7.5% in the run-up to the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, with the most recent Demoskop survey showing 7.5% and earlier Novus and Indikator readings clustered near 6.1%. As the smallest party in the Tidö coalition government, KD maintains a stable but narrow base rooted in its Christian democratic platform and regional strongholds, aided by leader Ebba Busch’s profile as Energy Minister on nuclear power and defense issues. The broader center-right bloc trails the Red-Green opposition in aggregate voting intention, limiting upside for smaller partners like KD while recent modest gains have kept results near the 6% threshold. This polling range underpins trader consensus on the over-6% outcome at 61% implied probability, with final turnout, campaign dynamics, and any late shifts among undecided voters still able to influence the result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support between 6.1% and 7.5% in the run-up to the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, with the most recent Demoskop survey showing 7.5% and earlier Novus and Indikator readings clustered near 6.1%. As the smallest party in the Tidö coalition government, KD maintains a stable but narrow base rooted in its Christian democratic platform and regional strongholds, aided by leader Ebba Busch’s profile as Energy Minister on nuclear power and defense issues. The broader center-right bloc trails the Red-Green opposition in aggregate voting intention, limiting upside for smaller partners like KD while recent modest gains have kept results near the 6% threshold. This polling range underpins trader consensus on the over-6% outcome at 61% implied probability, with final turnout, campaign dynamics, and any late shifts among undecided voters still able to influence the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions