NASA's ongoing Sentry impact monitoring system and complementary ESA surveys continue to show no near-Earth objects on credible 2026 collision trajectories, sustaining the market's strong "No" consensus at 89% implied probability. Recent small fireballs and airbursts, including March events over Ohio and Texas releasing under 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, align with historical patterns of harmless sub-10-meter objects rather than market-resolving threats. Ongoing radar and optical refinements of objects like 2026 variants further lower uncertainty without elevating risks. Traders weigh the statistical rarity of 10kt+ strikes—well below 1% annually—against the absence of late discoveries or orbital shifts that could alter outcomes before year-end surveys conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
11% chance
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
$178,784 Vol.
$178,784 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's ongoing Sentry impact monitoring system and complementary ESA surveys continue to show no near-Earth objects on credible 2026 collision trajectories, sustaining the market's strong "No" consensus at 89% implied probability. Recent small fireballs and airbursts, including March events over Ohio and Texas releasing under 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, align with historical patterns of harmless sub-10-meter objects rather than market-resolving threats. Ongoing radar and optical refinements of objects like 2026 variants further lower uncertainty without elevating risks. Traders weigh the statistical rarity of 10kt+ strikes—well below 1% annually—against the absence of late discoveries or orbital shifts that could alter outcomes before year-end surveys conclude.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$178,784End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's ongoing Sentry impact monitoring system and complementary ESA surveys continue to show no near-Earth objects on credible 2026 collision trajectories, sustaining the market's strong "No" consensus at 89% implied probability. Recent small fireballs and airbursts, including March events over Ohio and Texas releasing under 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, align with historical patterns of harmless sub-10-meter objects rather than market-resolving threats. Ongoing radar and optical refinements of objects like 2026 variants further lower uncertainty without elevating risks. Traders weigh the statistical rarity of 10kt+ strikes—well below 1% annually—against the absence of late discoveries or orbital shifts that could alter outcomes before year-end surveys conclude.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$178,784End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's ongoing Sentry impact monitoring system and complementary ESA surveys continue to show no near-Earth objects on credible 2026 collision trajectories, sustaining the market's strong "No" consensus at 89% implied probability. Recent small fireballs and airbursts, including March events over Ohio and Texas releasing under 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, align with historical patterns of harmless sub-10-meter objects rather than market-resolving threats. Ongoing radar and optical refinements of objects like 2026 variants further lower uncertainty without elevating risks. Traders weigh the statistical rarity of 10kt+ strikes—well below 1% annually—against the absence of late discoveries or orbital shifts that could alter outcomes before year-end surveys conclude.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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