Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 27–28°C on August 24, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing subtropical high pressure and high humidity, with limited diurnal cooling. Recent daily markets, including the August 20 resolution at 27°C, reinforce trader reliance on stable summer patterns absent typhoon or frontal passages. Model consensus from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather currently favors 81°F (27°C) lows, though small revisions in guidance could shift probabilities between the two leading contracts before official station data finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 24?
27°C 60%
28°C 32%
25°C 6%
26°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
6%
26°C
6%
27°C
60%
28°C
32%
29°C
3%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 60%
28°C 32%
25°C 6%
26°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
22°C or below
$60 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$92 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$402 Vol.
6%
26°C
$754 Vol.
6%
27°C
$714 Vol.
60%
28°C
$299 Vol.
32%
29°C
$542 Vol.
3%
30°C
$60 Vol.
1%
31°C
$85 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 27–28°C on August 24, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing subtropical high pressure and high humidity, with limited diurnal cooling. Recent daily markets, including the August 20 resolution at 27°C, reinforce trader reliance on stable summer patterns absent typhoon or frontal passages. Model consensus from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather currently favors 81°F (27°C) lows, though small revisions in guidance could shift probabilities between the two leading contracts before official station data finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,197End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 27–28°C on August 24, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing subtropical high pressure and high humidity, with limited diurnal cooling. Recent daily markets, including the August 20 resolution at 27°C, reinforce trader reliance on stable summer patterns absent typhoon or frontal passages. Model consensus from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather currently favors 81°F (27°C) lows, though small revisions in guidance could shift probabilities between the two leading contracts before official station data finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,197End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official and model forecasts for Shanghai point to an overnight low near 27–28°C on August 24, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes. Mid-August climatology shows typical minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing subtropical high pressure and high humidity, with limited diurnal cooling. Recent daily markets, including the August 20 resolution at 27°C, reinforce trader reliance on stable summer patterns absent typhoon or frontal passages. Model consensus from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather currently favors 81°F (27°C) lows, though small revisions in guidance could shift probabilities between the two leading contracts before official station data finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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