Current southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions over Luzon, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, represent the main driver behind the closely clustered 25–28°C probabilities for Manila’s August 22 minimum temperature. Persistent cloud cover and moisture limit both daytime solar heating and nighttime radiative cooling, compressing the diurnal range around the seasonal average low of ~25°C. Recent PAGASA outlooks and model guidance show no strong tropical cyclone influence, leaving outcomes sensitive to small shifts in rainfall timing, wind speed, and humidity. These factors create genuine forecast uncertainty typical of monsoon periods, with traders weighting the 26–27°C band highest based on the balance of historical climatology and current observational trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 22?
27°C 31%
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
28°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
27%
25°C
28%
26°C
29%
27°C
31%
28°C
27%
29°C
27%
30°C
13%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 31%
26°C 29%
25°C 28%
28°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
21°C or below
$47 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$45 Vol.
2%
23°C
$85 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
27%
25°C
$1 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$0 Vol.
27%
30°C
$37 Vol.
13%
31°C or higher
$28 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions over Luzon, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, represent the main driver behind the closely clustered 25–28°C probabilities for Manila’s August 22 minimum temperature. Persistent cloud cover and moisture limit both daytime solar heating and nighttime radiative cooling, compressing the diurnal range around the seasonal average low of ~25°C. Recent PAGASA outlooks and model guidance show no strong tropical cyclone influence, leaving outcomes sensitive to small shifts in rainfall timing, wind speed, and humidity. These factors create genuine forecast uncertainty typical of monsoon periods, with traders weighting the 26–27°C band highest based on the balance of historical climatology and current observational trends.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:34 PM ET
Volume
$242End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions over Luzon, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, represent the main driver behind the closely clustered 25–28°C probabilities for Manila’s August 22 minimum temperature. Persistent cloud cover and moisture limit both daytime solar heating and nighttime radiative cooling, compressing the diurnal range around the seasonal average low of ~25°C. Recent PAGASA outlooks and model guidance show no strong tropical cyclone influence, leaving outcomes sensitive to small shifts in rainfall timing, wind speed, and humidity. These factors create genuine forecast uncertainty typical of monsoon periods, with traders weighting the 26–27°C band highest based on the balance of historical climatology and current observational trends.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$242End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions over Luzon, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, represent the main driver behind the closely clustered 25–28°C probabilities for Manila’s August 22 minimum temperature. Persistent cloud cover and moisture limit both daytime solar heating and nighttime radiative cooling, compressing the diurnal range around the seasonal average low of ~25°C. Recent PAGASA outlooks and model guidance show no strong tropical cyclone influence, leaving outcomes sensitive to small shifts in rainfall timing, wind speed, and humidity. These factors create genuine forecast uncertainty typical of monsoon periods, with traders weighting the 26–27°C band highest based on the balance of historical climatology and current observational trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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