Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a Manila minimum temperature near 25–28°C on August 21, driven by the southwest monsoon’s persistent moisture, widespread cloud cover, and light winds that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 24–25°C, combined with the urban heat island effect, further limit overnight drops. Historical August climatology for the city shows typical lows in this narrow band, with rare excursions below 24°C absent clear skies or unusual cold surges. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–28°C outcomes as model consensus holds steady, while the negligible probability for 22°C or below reflects low odds of localized shower-driven cooling or forecast shifts before the daily minimum is recorded. Fresh PAGASA updates and model runs over the next several hours remain the key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 21?
25°C 59%
23°C 58%
24°C 58%
26°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
58%
24°C
58%
25°C
59%
26°C
34%
27°C
34%
28°C
45%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 59%
23°C 58%
24°C 58%
26°C 34%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$49 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$98 Vol.
58%
24°C
$104 Vol.
58%
25°C
$94 Vol.
59%
26°C
$0 Vol.
34%
27°C
$0 Vol.
34%
28°C
$10 Vol.
45%
29°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$105 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a Manila minimum temperature near 25–28°C on August 21, driven by the southwest monsoon’s persistent moisture, widespread cloud cover, and light winds that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 24–25°C, combined with the urban heat island effect, further limit overnight drops. Historical August climatology for the city shows typical lows in this narrow band, with rare excursions below 24°C absent clear skies or unusual cold surges. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–28°C outcomes as model consensus holds steady, while the negligible probability for 22°C or below reflects low odds of localized shower-driven cooling or forecast shifts before the daily minimum is recorded. Fresh PAGASA updates and model runs over the next several hours remain the key variables.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$775End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a Manila minimum temperature near 25–28°C on August 21, driven by the southwest monsoon’s persistent moisture, widespread cloud cover, and light winds that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 24–25°C, combined with the urban heat island effect, further limit overnight drops. Historical August climatology for the city shows typical lows in this narrow band, with rare excursions below 24°C absent clear skies or unusual cold surges. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–28°C outcomes as model consensus holds steady, while the negligible probability for 22°C or below reflects low odds of localized shower-driven cooling or forecast shifts before the daily minimum is recorded. Fresh PAGASA updates and model runs over the next several hours remain the key variables.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$775End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a Manila minimum temperature near 25–28°C on August 21, driven by the southwest monsoon’s persistent moisture, widespread cloud cover, and light winds that suppress nocturnal radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 24–25°C, combined with the urban heat island effect, further limit overnight drops. Historical August climatology for the city shows typical lows in this narrow band, with rare excursions below 24°C absent clear skies or unusual cold surges. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–28°C outcomes as model consensus holds steady, while the negligible probability for 22°C or below reflects low odds of localized shower-driven cooling or forecast shifts before the daily minimum is recorded. Fresh PAGASA updates and model runs over the next several hours remain the key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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