Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under clear, breezy conditions is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 20–24 °C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum temperature. Typical late-summer climatology features nighttime lows near 18–20 °C, but current model guidance shows modest spread: BBC and timeanddate.com project minima near 20–23 °C while the Met Office indicates potential for 17 °C under lighter winds. Sunny skies and moderate north-easterly flow limit boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, keeping probabilities for sub-19 °C outcomes subdued at 36–38 %. Traders appear to weigh these small differences in forecast wind speed and humidity against historical August variability, resulting in near-even odds across the central range as new model runs approach resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 22?
18°C or below 75%
22°C 43%
21°C 42%
20°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
18°C or below
75%
19°C
36%
20°C
42%
21°C
42%
22°C
43%
23°C
43%
24°C
42%
25°C
4%
26°C
7%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
18°C or below 75%
22°C 43%
21°C 42%
20°C 42%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
18°C or below
$81 Vol.
75%
19°C
$48 Vol.
36%
20°C
$0 Vol.
42%
21°C
$0 Vol.
42%
22°C
$0 Vol.
43%
23°C
$35 Vol.
43%
24°C
$0 Vol.
42%
25°C
$97 Vol.
4%
26°C
$30 Vol.
7%
27°C
$20 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$101 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under clear, breezy conditions is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 20–24 °C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum temperature. Typical late-summer climatology features nighttime lows near 18–20 °C, but current model guidance shows modest spread: BBC and timeanddate.com project minima near 20–23 °C while the Met Office indicates potential for 17 °C under lighter winds. Sunny skies and moderate north-easterly flow limit boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, keeping probabilities for sub-19 °C outcomes subdued at 36–38 %. Traders appear to weigh these small differences in forecast wind speed and humidity against historical August variability, resulting in near-even odds across the central range as new model runs approach resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ET
Volume
$413End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under clear, breezy conditions is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 20–24 °C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum temperature. Typical late-summer climatology features nighttime lows near 18–20 °C, but current model guidance shows modest spread: BBC and timeanddate.com project minima near 20–23 °C while the Met Office indicates potential for 17 °C under lighter winds. Sunny skies and moderate north-easterly flow limit boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, keeping probabilities for sub-19 °C outcomes subdued at 36–38 %. Traders appear to weigh these small differences in forecast wind speed and humidity against historical August variability, resulting in near-even odds across the central range as new model runs approach resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$413End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under clear, breezy conditions is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 20–24 °C for Istanbul’s August 22 minimum temperature. Typical late-summer climatology features nighttime lows near 18–20 °C, but current model guidance shows modest spread: BBC and timeanddate.com project minima near 20–23 °C while the Met Office indicates potential for 17 °C under lighter winds. Sunny skies and moderate north-easterly flow limit boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression, keeping probabilities for sub-19 °C outcomes subdued at 36–38 %. Traders appear to weigh these small differences in forecast wind speed and humidity against historical August variability, resulting in near-even odds across the central range as new model runs approach resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions