Short-term forecast consensus from regional models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 27°C on August 18 amid light showers, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on 26–28°C outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where average minimums hover around 26–28°C under similar monsoon-influenced conditions. Key differentiators among closely matched probabilities include variable rainfall timing and wind patterns that could suppress or allow brief drops toward 25°C, versus urban heat-island effects and above-normal seasonal temperatures (normal to above-normal per the HKO August–October outlook) that favor staying at or above 27°C. New model runs and updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
30°C 51%
24°C 50%
32°C 39%
27°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
50%
25°C
27%
26°C
28%
27°C
37%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C
51%
31°C
2%
32°C
39%
33°C or higher
1%
30°C 51%
24°C 50%
32°C 39%
27°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$102 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
37%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$0 Vol.
26%
30°C
$0 Vol.
51%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$0 Vol.
39%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast consensus from regional models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 27°C on August 18 amid light showers, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on 26–28°C outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where average minimums hover around 26–28°C under similar monsoon-influenced conditions. Key differentiators among closely matched probabilities include variable rainfall timing and wind patterns that could suppress or allow brief drops toward 25°C, versus urban heat-island effects and above-normal seasonal temperatures (normal to above-normal per the HKO August–October outlook) that favor staying at or above 27°C. New model runs and updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$102End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Short-term forecast consensus from regional models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 27°C on August 18 amid light showers, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on 26–28°C outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where average minimums hover around 26–28°C under similar monsoon-influenced conditions. Key differentiators among closely matched probabilities include variable rainfall timing and wind patterns that could suppress or allow brief drops toward 25°C, versus urban heat-island effects and above-normal seasonal temperatures (normal to above-normal per the HKO August–October outlook) that favor staying at or above 27°C. New model runs and updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$102End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast consensus from regional models and the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 27°C on August 18 amid light showers, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on 26–28°C outcomes, reflecting typical mid-August climatology where average minimums hover around 26–28°C under similar monsoon-influenced conditions. Key differentiators among closely matched probabilities include variable rainfall timing and wind patterns that could suppress or allow brief drops toward 25°C, versus urban heat-island effects and above-normal seasonal temperatures (normal to above-normal per the HKO August–October outlook) that favor staying at or above 27°C. New model runs and updated guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these narrow spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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