Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and timeanddate place Madrid’s maximum temperature for August 18 near 38°C under sunny skies and light winds, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region’s continental climate where clear, subsiding air promotes strong daytime heating. Model consensus shows limited spread around 36–39°C due to stable high-pressure dominance, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge peaks toward 40°C or hold them near 37°C. With market-implied odds clustered across these bins, traders appear focused on the narrow range of outcomes typical for this timeframe, awaiting updated short-range guidance from AEMET and ECMWF runs that could refine intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
38°C 48%
39°C 47%
40°C 13%
36°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
11%
37°C
11%
38°C
48%
39°C
47%
40°C
13%
41°C
6%
42°C
3%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
1%
38°C 48%
39°C 47%
40°C 13%
36°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
$18 Vol.
1%
35°C
$18 Vol.
1%
36°C
$24 Vol.
11%
37°C
$36 Vol.
11%
38°C
$64 Vol.
48%
39°C
$59 Vol.
47%
40°C
$13 Vol.
13%
41°C
$10 Vol.
6%
42°C
$0 Vol.
3%
43°C
$13 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$13 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and timeanddate place Madrid’s maximum temperature for August 18 near 38°C under sunny skies and light winds, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region’s continental climate where clear, subsiding air promotes strong daytime heating. Model consensus shows limited spread around 36–39°C due to stable high-pressure dominance, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge peaks toward 40°C or hold them near 37°C. With market-implied odds clustered across these bins, traders appear focused on the narrow range of outcomes typical for this timeframe, awaiting updated short-range guidance from AEMET and ECMWF runs that could refine intensity.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$267End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and timeanddate place Madrid’s maximum temperature for August 18 near 38°C under sunny skies and light winds, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region’s continental climate where clear, subsiding air promotes strong daytime heating. Model consensus shows limited spread around 36–39°C due to stable high-pressure dominance, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge peaks toward 40°C or hold them near 37°C. With market-implied odds clustered across these bins, traders appear focused on the narrow range of outcomes typical for this timeframe, awaiting updated short-range guidance from AEMET and ECMWF runs that could refine intensity.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$267End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources including the BBC and timeanddate place Madrid’s maximum temperature for August 18 near 38°C under sunny skies and light winds, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region’s continental climate where clear, subsiding air promotes strong daytime heating. Model consensus shows limited spread around 36–39°C due to stable high-pressure dominance, though small shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge peaks toward 40°C or hold them near 37°C. With market-implied odds clustered across these bins, traders appear focused on the narrow range of outcomes typical for this timeframe, awaiting updated short-range guidance from AEMET and ECMWF runs that could refine intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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