Recent National Weather Service and model consensus for Central Park point to a daily maximum near 82–84°F under moderate humidity and light southerly flow typical of mid-August. This aligns with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 83°F and explains why the 80–83°F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. A potential tropical disturbance noted in longer-range guidance could enhance cloud cover or showers, capping temperatures and supporting the modest edge for the 80–81°F outcome over higher ranges. No strong heat advection or clear-sky amplification is evident in current analyses, keeping odds for 86°F+ below 2%. Updated short-range model runs and official observations through evening will refine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 16?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?
80-81°F 47%
82-83°F 27%
78-79°F 18%
84-85°F 6%
NEW
$11,985 Vol.
NEW
$11,985 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
47%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 47%
82-83°F 27%
78-79°F 18%
84-85°F 6%
NEW
$11,985 Vol.
NEW
$11,985 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
71°F or below
$211 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$148 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$610 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$1,630 Vol.
5%
78-79°F
$1,083 Vol.
18%
80-81°F
$661 Vol.
47%
82-83°F
$3,585 Vol.
27%
84-85°F
$1,413 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$1,112 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$999 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$532 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus for Central Park point to a daily maximum near 82–84°F under moderate humidity and light southerly flow typical of mid-August. This aligns with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 83°F and explains why the 80–83°F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. A potential tropical disturbance noted in longer-range guidance could enhance cloud cover or showers, capping temperatures and supporting the modest edge for the 80–81°F outcome over higher ranges. No strong heat advection or clear-sky amplification is evident in current analyses, keeping odds for 86°F+ below 2%. Updated short-range model runs and official observations through evening will refine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$11,985End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus for Central Park point to a daily maximum near 82–84°F under moderate humidity and light southerly flow typical of mid-August. This aligns with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 83°F and explains why the 80–83°F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. A potential tropical disturbance noted in longer-range guidance could enhance cloud cover or showers, capping temperatures and supporting the modest edge for the 80–81°F outcome over higher ranges. No strong heat advection or clear-sky amplification is evident in current analyses, keeping odds for 86°F+ below 2%. Updated short-range model runs and official observations through evening will refine resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,985End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model consensus for Central Park point to a daily maximum near 82–84°F under moderate humidity and light southerly flow typical of mid-August. This aligns with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 83°F and explains why the 80–83°F bins hold the highest implied probabilities. A potential tropical disturbance noted in longer-range guidance could enhance cloud cover or showers, capping temperatures and supporting the modest edge for the 80–81°F outcome over higher ranges. No strong heat advection or clear-sky amplification is evident in current analyses, keeping odds for 86°F+ below 2%. Updated short-range model runs and official observations through evening will refine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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