Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Chengdu on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress overnight radiative cooling in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where daytime highs reach 33–34°C but nighttime lows rarely drop below 24°C without clear skies. The near-even market odds around 25°C versus 26°C reflect minor model differences in precipitation timing and wind, while the balanced probabilities for 30°C+ or 20°C or below highlight lingering uncertainty in exactly how much cooling occurs before dawn. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 25?
30°C or higher 86%
20°C or below 85%
21°C 49%
26°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
85%
21°C
49%
22°C
25%
23°C
25%
24°C
25%
25°C
28%
26°C
31%
27°C
25%
28°C
25%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
86%
30°C or higher 86%
20°C or below 85%
21°C 49%
26°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
85%
21°C
$5 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
25%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$0 Vol.
31%
27°C
$0 Vol.
25%
28°C
$0 Vol.
25%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$5 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Chengdu on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress overnight radiative cooling in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where daytime highs reach 33–34°C but nighttime lows rarely drop below 24°C without clear skies. The near-even market odds around 25°C versus 26°C reflect minor model differences in precipitation timing and wind, while the balanced probabilities for 30°C+ or 20°C or below highlight lingering uncertainty in exactly how much cooling occurs before dawn. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Chengdu on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress overnight radiative cooling in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where daytime highs reach 33–34°C but nighttime lows rarely drop below 24°C without clear skies. The near-even market odds around 25°C versus 26°C reflect minor model differences in precipitation timing and wind, while the balanced probabilities for 30°C+ or 20°C or below highlight lingering uncertainty in exactly how much cooling occurs before dawn. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Chengdu on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers that suppress overnight radiative cooling in the region's subtropical monsoon climate. These conditions align with typical late-August patterns where daytime highs reach 33–34°C but nighttime lows rarely drop below 24°C without clear skies. The near-even market odds around 25°C versus 26°C reflect minor model differences in precipitation timing and wind, while the balanced probabilities for 30°C+ or 20°C or below highlight lingering uncertainty in exactly how much cooling occurs before dawn. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance expected within 24 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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