Traders assign over 90% probability to Mojtaba Khamenei issuing fewer than five posts on his official X account during September 11–18 because his verified profile @Rahbarenghelab_ has maintained a sparse cadence since its March 2026 launch, with recent activity limited to occasional written statements on regional tensions and domestic unity rather than daily updates. The account functions primarily as a channel for pre-approved messages from the supreme leader’s media apparatus, consistent with his limited public appearances and reliance on formal pronouncements amid ongoing geopolitical frictions. Historical patterns from both his tenure and his predecessor’s multilingual accounts show bursts tied to crises rather than routine output. A sharp escalation in conflicts, major diplomatic breakthrough, or internal policy shift could prompt additional statements and narrow the lead.