Traders assign the strongest probability (66.5%) to fewer than five posts from the official Khamenei account in the August 11–18 window, with 5–9 posts a distant second at 32.5%, because the successor leadership has maintained a deliberately low public profile since the earlier transition. Official channels have released only occasional statements or undated video clips rather than frequent updates, consistent with historical patterns during periods of consolidation or reduced diplomatic signaling. The most recent verifiable development—an undated video of the new Supreme Leader shared by state media on August 10—produced no immediate surge in account activity, reinforcing expectations of restrained output absent major escalations, summits, or policy announcements within the resolution period. Higher brackets remain thinly priced, reflecting limited evidence of sustained engagement from the verified accounts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 11 - August 18, 2026?
<5 67%
5-9 33%
10-14 1.8%
15-19 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
<5
67%
5-9
33%
10-14
2%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
<5 67%
5-9 33%
10-14 1.8%
15-19 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
<5
$2,696 Vol.
67%
5-9
$1,482 Vol.
33%
10-14
$499 Vol.
2%
15-19
$321 Vol.
1%
20-24
$320 Vol.
1%
25-29
$309 Vol.
1%
30-34
$320 Vol.
1%
35-39
$351 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$321 Vol.
1%
45-49
$301 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$314 Vol.
1%
55-59
$322 Vol.
1%
60+
$551 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the strongest probability (66.5%) to fewer than five posts from the official Khamenei account in the August 11–18 window, with 5–9 posts a distant second at 32.5%, because the successor leadership has maintained a deliberately low public profile since the earlier transition. Official channels have released only occasional statements or undated video clips rather than frequent updates, consistent with historical patterns during periods of consolidation or reduced diplomatic signaling. The most recent verifiable development—an undated video of the new Supreme Leader shared by state media on August 10—produced no immediate surge in account activity, reinforcing expectations of restrained output absent major escalations, summits, or policy announcements within the resolution period. Higher brackets remain thinly priced, reflecting limited evidence of sustained engagement from the verified accounts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$8,106End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the strongest probability (66.5%) to fewer than five posts from the official Khamenei account in the August 11–18 window, with 5–9 posts a distant second at 32.5%, because the successor leadership has maintained a deliberately low public profile since the earlier transition. Official channels have released only occasional statements or undated video clips rather than frequent updates, consistent with historical patterns during periods of consolidation or reduced diplomatic signaling. The most recent verifiable development—an undated video of the new Supreme Leader shared by state media on August 10—produced no immediate surge in account activity, reinforcing expectations of restrained output absent major escalations, summits, or policy announcements within the resolution period. Higher brackets remain thinly priced, reflecting limited evidence of sustained engagement from the verified accounts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$8,106End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the strongest probability (66.5%) to fewer than five posts from the official Khamenei account in the August 11–18 window, with 5–9 posts a distant second at 32.5%, because the successor leadership has maintained a deliberately low public profile since the earlier transition. Official channels have released only occasional statements or undated video clips rather than frequent updates, consistent with historical patterns during periods of consolidation or reduced diplomatic signaling. The most recent verifiable development—an undated video of the new Supreme Leader shared by state media on August 10—produced no immediate surge in account activity, reinforcing expectations of restrained output absent major escalations, summits, or policy announcements within the resolution period. Higher brackets remain thinly priced, reflecting limited evidence of sustained engagement from the verified accounts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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