Escalating US-Iran naval hostilities and active blockade enforcement have driven recent Strait of Hormuz traffic to single digits daily—seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and pre-conflict norms near 120—pushing trader consensus toward the tightly bunched 20-24 and 25-29 bins. Persistent IRGC surveillance, vessel turn-backs, strikes on shipping, and GNSS/AIS interference compel operators to favor dark transits, while elevated war-risk premiums and Houthi-related Red Sea spillover further constrain visible flows. With no immediate ceasefire resolution and ongoing enforcement actions, these security and compliance dynamics sustain uncertainty between modest recovery and continued suppression through the September 14 week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
20-24 36%
30-34 23%
35-39 23%
25-29 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
14%
20-24
36%
25-29
22%
30-34
23%
35-39
23%
40+
8%
20-24 36%
30-34 23%
35-39 23%
25-29 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$47 Vol.
14%
20-24
$0 Vol.
36%
25-29
$0 Vol.
22%
30-34
$0 Vol.
23%
35-39
$0 Vol.
23%
40+
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran naval hostilities and active blockade enforcement have driven recent Strait of Hormuz traffic to single digits daily—seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and pre-conflict norms near 120—pushing trader consensus toward the tightly bunched 20-24 and 25-29 bins. Persistent IRGC surveillance, vessel turn-backs, strikes on shipping, and GNSS/AIS interference compel operators to favor dark transits, while elevated war-risk premiums and Houthi-related Red Sea spillover further constrain visible flows. With no immediate ceasefire resolution and ongoing enforcement actions, these security and compliance dynamics sustain uncertainty between modest recovery and continued suppression through the September 14 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$47End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran naval hostilities and active blockade enforcement have driven recent Strait of Hormuz traffic to single digits daily—seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and pre-conflict norms near 120—pushing trader consensus toward the tightly bunched 20-24 and 25-29 bins. Persistent IRGC surveillance, vessel turn-backs, strikes on shipping, and GNSS/AIS interference compel operators to favor dark transits, while elevated war-risk premiums and Houthi-related Red Sea spillover further constrain visible flows. With no immediate ceasefire resolution and ongoing enforcement actions, these security and compliance dynamics sustain uncertainty between modest recovery and continued suppression through the September 14 week.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$47End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Escalating US-Iran naval hostilities and active blockade enforcement have driven recent Strait of Hormuz traffic to single digits daily—seven vessels on September 10 versus a 10-day average of 15 and pre-conflict norms near 120—pushing trader consensus toward the tightly bunched 20-24 and 25-29 bins. Persistent IRGC surveillance, vessel turn-backs, strikes on shipping, and GNSS/AIS interference compel operators to favor dark transits, while elevated war-risk premiums and Houthi-related Red Sea spillover further constrain visible flows. With no immediate ceasefire resolution and ongoing enforcement actions, these security and compliance dynamics sustain uncertainty between modest recovery and continued suppression through the September 14 week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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