Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah, combined with the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade and elevated war-risk premiums (now 0.75–2% of hull value), have pressured Bab el-Mandeb volumes toward the 200–270 weekly range amid selective carrier pauses and dark transits. Trader-implied odds cluster around 170–209 ships for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but below-baseline container and tanker flows—Suez recoveries remain partial at ~41% below pre-crisis levels—while higher bands capture upside from recent MarineTraffic snapshots near 269 crossings. Key swing factors include further premium repricing, Maersk-style routing reversals, and any de-escalation that could lift laden transits above recent AIS-tracked averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 34%
170-189 34%
210-229 31%
230+ 28%
NEW
$21,455 Vol.
NEW
$21,455 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
26%
170-189
34%
190-209
34%
210-229
31%
230+
28%
190-209 34%
170-189 34%
210-229 31%
230+ 28%
NEW
$21,455 Vol.
NEW
$21,455 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$0 Vol.
26%
170-189
$0 Vol.
34%
190-209
$0 Vol.
34%
210-229
$8,806 Vol.
31%
230+
$12,650 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah, combined with the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade and elevated war-risk premiums (now 0.75–2% of hull value), have pressured Bab el-Mandeb volumes toward the 200–270 weekly range amid selective carrier pauses and dark transits. Trader-implied odds cluster around 170–209 ships for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but below-baseline container and tanker flows—Suez recoveries remain partial at ~41% below pre-crisis levels—while higher bands capture upside from recent MarineTraffic snapshots near 269 crossings. Key swing factors include further premium repricing, Maersk-style routing reversals, and any de-escalation that could lift laden transits above recent AIS-tracked averages.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$21,455End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah, combined with the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade and elevated war-risk premiums (now 0.75–2% of hull value), have pressured Bab el-Mandeb volumes toward the 200–270 weekly range amid selective carrier pauses and dark transits. Trader-implied odds cluster around 170–209 ships for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but below-baseline container and tanker flows—Suez recoveries remain partial at ~41% below pre-crisis levels—while higher bands capture upside from recent MarineTraffic snapshots near 269 crossings. Key swing factors include further premium repricing, Maersk-style routing reversals, and any de-escalation that could lift laden transits above recent AIS-tracked averages.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$21,455End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal August 11 strike on the Tihamah, combined with the July 20 Saudi-linked blockade and elevated war-risk premiums (now 0.75–2% of hull value), have pressured Bab el-Mandeb volumes toward the 200–270 weekly range amid selective carrier pauses and dark transits. Trader-implied odds cluster around 170–209 ships for the week of August 31, reflecting stabilized but below-baseline container and tanker flows—Suez recoveries remain partial at ~41% below pre-crisis levels—while higher bands capture upside from recent MarineTraffic snapshots near 269 crossings. Key swing factors include further premium repricing, Maersk-style routing reversals, and any de-escalation that could lift laden transits above recent AIS-tracked averages.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions