Elevated geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-related conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent weeks versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data. High war-risk insurance premiums (around 40 times normal), IRGC assertions of control as of August 29, lingering mine threats, and recent tanker strikes have deterred most operators, while major container lines continue rerouting and roughly 410 vessels remain stranded. Limited U.S.-facilitated or dark transits provide only marginal support, leaving weekly volumes likely in the low dozens. This environment underpins the market's 61% implied probability on the 20–39 range for the week of August 31, with higher buckets reflecting only modest upside potential absent rapid de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 62%
40-59 28%
<20 19%
60-79 16%
NEW
$10,742 Vol.
NEW
$10,742 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
19%
20-39
62%
40-59
28%
60-79
16%
80+
15%
20-39 62%
40-59 28%
<20 19%
60-79 16%
NEW
$10,742 Vol.
NEW
$10,742 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$14 Vol.
19%
20-39
$10,671 Vol.
62%
40-59
$28 Vol.
28%
60-79
$14 Vol.
16%
80+
$14 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Elevated geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-related conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent weeks versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data. High war-risk insurance premiums (around 40 times normal), IRGC assertions of control as of August 29, lingering mine threats, and recent tanker strikes have deterred most operators, while major container lines continue rerouting and roughly 410 vessels remain stranded. Limited U.S.-facilitated or dark transits provide only marginal support, leaving weekly volumes likely in the low dozens. This environment underpins the market's 61% implied probability on the 20–39 range for the week of August 31, with higher buckets reflecting only modest upside potential absent rapid de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$10,742End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Elevated geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-related conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent weeks versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data. High war-risk insurance premiums (around 40 times normal), IRGC assertions of control as of August 29, lingering mine threats, and recent tanker strikes have deterred most operators, while major container lines continue rerouting and roughly 410 vessels remain stranded. Limited U.S.-facilitated or dark transits provide only marginal support, leaving weekly volumes likely in the low dozens. This environment underpins the market's 61% implied probability on the 20–39 range for the week of August 31, with higher buckets reflecting only modest upside potential absent rapid de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$10,742End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran-related conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained, with daily transits averaging just 3–7 vessels in recent weeks versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data. High war-risk insurance premiums (around 40 times normal), IRGC assertions of control as of August 29, lingering mine threats, and recent tanker strikes have deterred most operators, while major container lines continue rerouting and roughly 410 vessels remain stranded. Limited U.S.-facilitated or dark transits provide only marginal support, leaving weekly volumes likely in the low dozens. This environment underpins the market's 61% implied probability on the 20–39 range for the week of August 31, with higher buckets reflecting only modest upside potential absent rapid de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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