Ongoing U.S.-Iran blockades, attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily AIS-detected transits averaging just 3-7 vessels in late August versus a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-85. This environment underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability on the 25-49 outcome for the week of August 24, as recent Kpler and UKMTO data show weekly volumes around 90% below historical norms amid rerouting by major carriers. Diplomatic progress on a temporary corridor via Oman-Iran talks or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, while any escalation in hostilities or sustained insurance costs would reinforce the current low-traffic regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 91%
<25 8%
50-74 3.3%
100+ <1%
$12,804 Vol.
$12,804 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
8%
25-49
91%
50-74
3%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 91%
<25 8%
50-74 3.3%
100+ <1%
$12,804 Vol.
$12,804 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$5,111 Vol.
8%
25-49
$4,108 Vol.
91%
50-74
$1,215 Vol.
3%
75-99
$956 Vol.
1%
100+
$1,414 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran blockades, attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily AIS-detected transits averaging just 3-7 vessels in late August versus a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-85. This environment underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability on the 25-49 outcome for the week of August 24, as recent Kpler and UKMTO data show weekly volumes around 90% below historical norms amid rerouting by major carriers. Diplomatic progress on a temporary corridor via Oman-Iran talks or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, while any escalation in hostilities or sustained insurance costs would reinforce the current low-traffic regime.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$12,804End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran blockades, attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily AIS-detected transits averaging just 3-7 vessels in late August versus a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-85. This environment underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability on the 25-49 outcome for the week of August 24, as recent Kpler and UKMTO data show weekly volumes around 90% below historical norms amid rerouting by major carriers. Diplomatic progress on a temporary corridor via Oman-Iran talks or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, while any escalation in hostilities or sustained insurance costs would reinforce the current low-traffic regime.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$12,804End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran blockades, attacks on vessels, and war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily AIS-detected transits averaging just 3-7 vessels in late August versus a pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-85. This environment underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability on the 25-49 outcome for the week of August 24, as recent Kpler and UKMTO data show weekly volumes around 90% below historical norms amid rerouting by major carriers. Diplomatic progress on a temporary corridor via Oman-Iran talks or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, while any escalation in hostilities or sustained insurance costs would reinforce the current low-traffic regime.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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