Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade. Recent data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the 11–31 range in late July and early August, reflecting roughly 34–50% volume declines amid elevated insurance premiums, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent attack risks. A fresh Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 12, resulting in fatalities, has reinforced deterrence. With the 2026 Iran-related conflict sustaining these dynamics and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (44.5%) to an average below 25 ships by month-end, consistent with current suppressed baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.5%
25-29 24%
30-34 20%
35-39 9%
$12,192 Vol.
$12,192 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
44%
25-29
24%
30-34
20%
35-39
9%
40+
4%
<25 44.5%
25-29 24%
30-34 20%
35-39 9%
$12,192 Vol.
$12,192 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,632 Vol.
44%
25-29
$2,439 Vol.
24%
30-34
$3,473 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,058 Vol.
9%
40+
$2,589 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade. Recent data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the 11–31 range in late July and early August, reflecting roughly 34–50% volume declines amid elevated insurance premiums, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent attack risks. A fresh Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 12, resulting in fatalities, has reinforced deterrence. With the 2026 Iran-related conflict sustaining these dynamics and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (44.5%) to an average below 25 ships by month-end, consistent with current suppressed baselines.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$12,192End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade. Recent data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the 11–31 range in late July and early August, reflecting roughly 34–50% volume declines amid elevated insurance premiums, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent attack risks. A fresh Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 12, resulting in fatalities, has reinforced deterrence. With the 2026 Iran-related conflict sustaining these dynamics and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (44.5%) to an average below 25 ships by month-end, consistent with current suppressed baselines.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$12,192End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade. Recent data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings falling to the 11–31 range in late July and early August, reflecting roughly 34–50% volume declines amid elevated insurance premiums, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, and persistent attack risks. A fresh Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship on August 12, resulting in fatalities, has reinforced deterrence. With the 2026 Iran-related conflict sustaining these dynamics and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (44.5%) to an average below 25 ships by month-end, consistent with current suppressed baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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