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icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Geopolitics·Iran

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Geopolitics·Iran

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?

Nov 1

Nov 1

$28,632 Vol.

Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$28,632 Vol.

Polymarket

August 31

$27,434 Vol.

5%

September 30

$210 Vol.

23%

October 31

$988 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reciprocal diplomatic expulsions between Iran and France have shaped trader sentiment around this market. In mid-August 2026, France declared two Iranian embassy staff persona non grata following Iran’s August 18 decision to bar two French diplomats from returning, citing alleged interference in domestic affairs and violations of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Iran described the French response as unjustifiable retaliation. Ongoing tensions with Lebanon, where the Iranian ambassador remains despite a March 2026 persona non grata designation, and prior U.S. expulsions of Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 add context. Scheduled diplomatic engagements or further accusations of interference could influence additional outcomes in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,632
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reciprocal diplomatic expulsions between Iran and France have shaped trader sentiment around this market. In mid-August 2026, France declared two Iranian embassy staff persona non grata following Iran’s August 18 decision to bar two French diplomats from returning, citing alleged interference in domestic affairs and violations of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Iran described the French response as unjustifiable retaliation. Ongoing tensions with Lebanon, where the Iranian ambassador remains despite a March 2026 persona non grata designation, and prior U.S. expulsions of Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 add context. Scheduled diplomatic engagements or further accusations of interference could influence additional outcomes in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,632
End Date
Nov 1, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 30" at 23%, followed by "October 31" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" has generated $28.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" is "September 30" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 31" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.