Latest ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and the UK Met Office places Warsaw’s maximum temperature for August 21 near 25–26°C under light southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover, supporting the market’s emphasis on the 27°C (49%) and 26°C (28.5%) bins. Scattered showers and a late-summer cooling trend are limiting stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and incoming solar radiation under broken cloud keep outcomes clustered in this narrow range. Typical August climatology for the city centers around 23–25°C highs, and the modest 18% probability assigned to 28°C or higher reflects limited potential for clearer skies or stronger insolation before resolution. Updated short-range runs and any new observational data from the day will continue to refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
27°C 49%
26°C 28%
28°C or higher 18%
25°C 6%
$16,024 Vol.
$16,024 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
28%
27°C
49%
28°C or higher
18%
27°C 49%
26°C 28%
28°C or higher 18%
25°C 6%
$16,024 Vol.
$16,024 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
$482 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$492 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$603 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$484 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$626 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$532 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,746 Vol.
2%
25°C
$2,686 Vol.
6%
26°C
$1,986 Vol.
28%
27°C
$3,180 Vol.
49%
28°C or higher
$3,208 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and the UK Met Office places Warsaw’s maximum temperature for August 21 near 25–26°C under light southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover, supporting the market’s emphasis on the 27°C (49%) and 26°C (28.5%) bins. Scattered showers and a late-summer cooling trend are limiting stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and incoming solar radiation under broken cloud keep outcomes clustered in this narrow range. Typical August climatology for the city centers around 23–25°C highs, and the modest 18% probability assigned to 28°C or higher reflects limited potential for clearer skies or stronger insolation before resolution. Updated short-range runs and any new observational data from the day will continue to refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$16,024End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and the UK Met Office places Warsaw’s maximum temperature for August 21 near 25–26°C under light southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover, supporting the market’s emphasis on the 27°C (49%) and 26°C (28.5%) bins. Scattered showers and a late-summer cooling trend are limiting stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and incoming solar radiation under broken cloud keep outcomes clustered in this narrow range. Typical August climatology for the city centers around 23–25°C highs, and the modest 18% probability assigned to 28°C or higher reflects limited potential for clearer skies or stronger insolation before resolution. Updated short-range runs and any new observational data from the day will continue to refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,024End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and the UK Met Office places Warsaw’s maximum temperature for August 21 near 25–26°C under light southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover, supporting the market’s emphasis on the 27°C (49%) and 26°C (28.5%) bins. Scattered showers and a late-summer cooling trend are limiting stronger daytime heating, while subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing and incoming solar radiation under broken cloud keep outcomes clustered in this narrow range. Typical August climatology for the city centers around 23–25°C highs, and the modest 18% probability assigned to 28°C or higher reflects limited potential for clearer skies or stronger insolation before resolution. Updated short-range runs and any new observational data from the day will continue to refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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