Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 17 most likely between 31–33°C amid persistent high pressure, limited cloud cover, and light winds across the Po Valley that favor daytime heating without significant mixing or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the region, where urban heat island effects and subsidence often produce maxima in this range, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact peaks. The market's heavy weighting toward 32°C reflects consensus across recent runs showing limited potential for either stronger cooling or rapid intensification beyond 33°C before resolution. Updated model guidance and official observations from ARPA Lombardia tomorrow morning will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 17?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 17?
32°C 42%
31°C 31%
33°C 20%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
6%
31°C
31%
32°C
42%
33°C
20%
34°C
5%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 42%
31°C 31%
33°C 20%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
27°C or below
$143 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$312 Vol.
1%
30°C
$725 Vol.
6%
31°C
$1,236 Vol.
31%
32°C
$1,406 Vol.
42%
33°C
$650 Vol.
20%
34°C
$425 Vol.
5%
35°C
$160 Vol.
2%
36°C
$226 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$644 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 17 most likely between 31–33°C amid persistent high pressure, limited cloud cover, and light winds across the Po Valley that favor daytime heating without significant mixing or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the region, where urban heat island effects and subsidence often produce maxima in this range, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact peaks. The market's heavy weighting toward 32°C reflects consensus across recent runs showing limited potential for either stronger cooling or rapid intensification beyond 33°C before resolution. Updated model guidance and official observations from ARPA Lombardia tomorrow morning will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$6,159End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 17 most likely between 31–33°C amid persistent high pressure, limited cloud cover, and light winds across the Po Valley that favor daytime heating without significant mixing or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the region, where urban heat island effects and subsidence often produce maxima in this range, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact peaks. The market's heavy weighting toward 32°C reflects consensus across recent runs showing limited potential for either stronger cooling or rapid intensification beyond 33°C before resolution. Updated model guidance and official observations from ARPA Lombardia tomorrow morning will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,159End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate peak temperatures in Milan on August 17 most likely between 31–33°C amid persistent high pressure, limited cloud cover, and light winds across the Po Valley that favor daytime heating without significant mixing or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with typical mid-August climatology for the region, where urban heat island effects and subsidence often produce maxima in this range, though model spreads introduce uncertainty around exact peaks. The market's heavy weighting toward 32°C reflects consensus across recent runs showing limited potential for either stronger cooling or rapid intensification beyond 33°C before resolution. Updated model guidance and official observations from ARPA Lombardia tomorrow morning will provide the clearest near-term signals for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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