**Trader consensus in this market strongly favors 32°C as the day's peak temperature in Karachi (68.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (20%).** This positioning reflects the city's late-August climatology, where average daily highs hover near 31–32°C (88°F) according to long-term records and reanalysis data, with only modest day-to-day variability during the monsoon season. Monsoon dynamics—persistent moisture, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers—typically suppress maximum temperatures relative to pre-monsoon peaks, keeping values within a narrow 30–33°C band. Recent observational trends through mid-August 2026 show highs mostly between 31–33°C, consistent with model guidance from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and global ensembles that indicate no strong heat-advection event or clear-sky intensification for the 21st. The tight clustering around 31–32°C also accounts for measurement conventions at official stations (e.g., Karachi Airport), where the official daily maximum is recorded. The low probabilities assigned to 33°C and above, or 30°C and below, align with the low likelihood of significant forecast shifts or extreme outliers on this date, given stable steering patterns and the moderating influence of the Arabian Sea. As the day progresses, any late-afternoon clearing or delayed rainfall could nudge the outcome within the narrow 31–33°C window that dominates current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on August 21?
Highest temperature in Karachi on August 21?
32°C 68%
31°C 20%
33°C 9%
34°C <1%
$14,561 Vol.
$14,561 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
20%
32°C
68%
33°C
9%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 68%
31°C 20%
33°C 9%
34°C <1%
$14,561 Vol.
$14,561 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
27°C or below
$709 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$462 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$423 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,827 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,932 Vol.
20%
32°C
$4,236 Vol.
68%
33°C
$1,642 Vol.
9%
34°C
$461 Vol.
1%
35°C
$269 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$247 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus in this market strongly favors 32°C as the day's peak temperature in Karachi (68.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (20%).** This positioning reflects the city's late-August climatology, where average daily highs hover near 31–32°C (88°F) according to long-term records and reanalysis data, with only modest day-to-day variability during the monsoon season.
Monsoon dynamics—persistent moisture, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers—typically suppress maximum temperatures relative to pre-monsoon peaks, keeping values within a narrow 30–33°C band. Recent observational trends through mid-August 2026 show highs mostly between 31–33°C, consistent with model guidance from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and global ensembles that indicate no strong heat-advection event or clear-sky intensification for the 21st. The tight clustering around 31–32°C also accounts for measurement conventions at official stations (e.g., Karachi Airport), where the official daily maximum is recorded.
The low probabilities assigned to 33°C and above, or 30°C and below, align with the low likelihood of significant forecast shifts or extreme outliers on this date, given stable steering patterns and the moderating influence of the Arabian Sea. As the day progresses, any late-afternoon clearing or delayed rainfall could nudge the outcome within the narrow 31–33°C window that dominates current market pricing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$14,561End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus in this market strongly favors 32°C as the day's peak temperature in Karachi (68.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (20%).** This positioning reflects the city's late-August climatology, where average daily highs hover near 31–32°C (88°F) according to long-term records and reanalysis data, with only modest day-to-day variability during the monsoon season.
Monsoon dynamics—persistent moisture, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers—typically suppress maximum temperatures relative to pre-monsoon peaks, keeping values within a narrow 30–33°C band. Recent observational trends through mid-August 2026 show highs mostly between 31–33°C, consistent with model guidance from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and global ensembles that indicate no strong heat-advection event or clear-sky intensification for the 21st. The tight clustering around 31–32°C also accounts for measurement conventions at official stations (e.g., Karachi Airport), where the official daily maximum is recorded.
The low probabilities assigned to 33°C and above, or 30°C and below, align with the low likelihood of significant forecast shifts or extreme outliers on this date, given stable steering patterns and the moderating influence of the Arabian Sea. As the day progresses, any late-afternoon clearing or delayed rainfall could nudge the outcome within the narrow 31–33°C window that dominates current market pricing.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,561End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus in this market strongly favors 32°C as the day's peak temperature in Karachi (68.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (20%).** This positioning reflects the city's late-August climatology, where average daily highs hover near 31–32°C (88°F) according to long-term records and reanalysis data, with only modest day-to-day variability during the monsoon season. Monsoon dynamics—persistent moisture, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers—typically suppress maximum temperatures relative to pre-monsoon peaks, keeping values within a narrow 30–33°C band. Recent observational trends through mid-August 2026 show highs mostly between 31–33°C, consistent with model guidance from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and global ensembles that indicate no strong heat-advection event or clear-sky intensification for the 21st. The tight clustering around 31–32°C also accounts for measurement conventions at official stations (e.g., Karachi Airport), where the official daily maximum is recorded. The low probabilities assigned to 33°C and above, or 30°C and below, align with the low likelihood of significant forecast shifts or extreme outliers on this date, given stable steering patterns and the moderating influence of the Arabian Sea. As the day progresses, any late-afternoon clearing or delayed rainfall could nudge the outcome within the narrow 31–33°C window that dominates current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions