Recent ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 17, 2026, indicate a daily maximum near 27–29°C (81–84°F) under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions align with typical late-summer Mediterranean patterns, where Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes often suppress peak heating below the August climatological average of 28–29°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C and 30% for 27°C captures the spread across models regarding exact wind strength and any thin cloud cover that could limit insolation. No significant synoptic changes or heat anomalies have emerged in the past 48 hours to shift this outlook, keeping higher thresholds like 28°C or above at low single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 17?
26°C 53%
27°C 33%
25°C 9%
28°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
9%
26°C
53%
27°C
33%
28°C
5%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 53%
27°C 33%
25°C 9%
28°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
21°C or below
$274 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$160 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$100 Vol.
1%
24°C
$65 Vol.
2%
25°C
$44 Vol.
9%
26°C
$230 Vol.
53%
27°C
$291 Vol.
33%
28°C
$134 Vol.
5%
29°C
$153 Vol.
2%
30°C
$325 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$1,032 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 17, 2026, indicate a daily maximum near 27–29°C (81–84°F) under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions align with typical late-summer Mediterranean patterns, where Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes often suppress peak heating below the August climatological average of 28–29°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C and 30% for 27°C captures the spread across models regarding exact wind strength and any thin cloud cover that could limit insolation. No significant synoptic changes or heat anomalies have emerged in the past 48 hours to shift this outlook, keeping higher thresholds like 28°C or above at low single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$2,809End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 17, 2026, indicate a daily maximum near 27–29°C (81–84°F) under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions align with typical late-summer Mediterranean patterns, where Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes often suppress peak heating below the August climatological average of 28–29°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C and 30% for 27°C captures the spread across models regarding exact wind strength and any thin cloud cover that could limit insolation. No significant synoptic changes or heat anomalies have emerged in the past 48 hours to shift this outlook, keeping higher thresholds like 28°C or above at low single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine the final maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,809End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts for Istanbul on August 17, 2026, indicate a daily maximum near 27–29°C (81–84°F) under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions align with typical late-summer Mediterranean patterns, where Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes often suppress peak heating below the August climatological average of 28–29°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% implied probability for 26°C and 30% for 27°C captures the spread across models regarding exact wind strength and any thin cloud cover that could limit insolation. No significant synoptic changes or heat anomalies have emerged in the past 48 hours to shift this outlook, keeping higher thresholds like 28°C or above at low single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs ahead of resolution will refine the final maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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