Elon Musk’s consistent daily posting volume on X, typically averaging 20–30 original posts or reposts amid business updates and commentary, anchors trader sentiment around the 40–89 tweet range for the August 13–15 window. Recent activity tied to SpaceX factory updates, xAI Grok iterations, and broader platform engagement has sustained this pace without a single viral spike or slowdown, aligning market-implied odds with observed daily tallies of roughly 15–40 posts. Geopolitical developments and product announcements have added incremental activity, yet nothing has shifted the cadence outside historical norms. With the period concluding on the 15th, final tallies will hinge on any last-day replies or threads, keeping the 65–89 bucket as the consensus favorite at 57.5% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated65-89 57%
40-64 42%
90-114 1.9%
115-139 <1%
$415,436 Vol.
$415,436 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
40-64
42%
65-89
57%
90-114
2%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 57%
40-64 42%
90-114 1.9%
115-139 <1%
$415,436 Vol.
$415,436 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
40-64
$86,850 Vol.
42%
65-89
$55,980 Vol.
57%
90-114
$84,274 Vol.
2%
115-139
$53,825 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$29,963 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$22,072 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$5,952 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$4,949 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,257 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent daily posting volume on X, typically averaging 20–30 original posts or reposts amid business updates and commentary, anchors trader sentiment around the 40–89 tweet range for the August 13–15 window. Recent activity tied to SpaceX factory updates, xAI Grok iterations, and broader platform engagement has sustained this pace without a single viral spike or slowdown, aligning market-implied odds with observed daily tallies of roughly 15–40 posts. Geopolitical developments and product announcements have added incremental activity, yet nothing has shifted the cadence outside historical norms. With the period concluding on the 15th, final tallies will hinge on any last-day replies or threads, keeping the 65–89 bucket as the consensus favorite at 57.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$415,436End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent daily posting volume on X, typically averaging 20–30 original posts or reposts amid business updates and commentary, anchors trader sentiment around the 40–89 tweet range for the August 13–15 window. Recent activity tied to SpaceX factory updates, xAI Grok iterations, and broader platform engagement has sustained this pace without a single viral spike or slowdown, aligning market-implied odds with observed daily tallies of roughly 15–40 posts. Geopolitical developments and product announcements have added incremental activity, yet nothing has shifted the cadence outside historical norms. With the period concluding on the 15th, final tallies will hinge on any last-day replies or threads, keeping the 65–89 bucket as the consensus favorite at 57.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$415,436End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s consistent daily posting volume on X, typically averaging 20–30 original posts or reposts amid business updates and commentary, anchors trader sentiment around the 40–89 tweet range for the August 13–15 window. Recent activity tied to SpaceX factory updates, xAI Grok iterations, and broader platform engagement has sustained this pace without a single viral spike or slowdown, aligning market-implied odds with observed daily tallies of roughly 15–40 posts. Geopolitical developments and product announcements have added incremental activity, yet nothing has shifted the cadence outside historical norms. With the period concluding on the 15th, final tallies will hinge on any last-day replies or threads, keeping the 65–89 bucket as the consensus favorite at 57.5% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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