Traders see 0.2% and 0.3% Core PCE month-over-month for August 2026 as nearly equally likely, reflecting uncertainty around persistent underlying inflation. July’s 0.2% reading aligned with forecasts but left the year-over-year rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, have highlighted sensitivity to incoming data, with August CPI due September 11 and the PCE release scheduled for September 30 shaping expectations ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Labor market stability and resilient consumer spending add to the balanced outlook, while any hotter-than-expected prints could reinforce rate-hike probabilities priced into Fed funds futures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3% 36%
0.2% 35%
0.4% 13%
0.1% 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
12%
0.0%
5%
0.1%
11%
0.2%
35%
0.3%
36%
0.4%
13%
0.5%+
3%
0.3% 36%
0.2% 35%
0.4% 13%
0.1% 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
$65 Vol.
12%
0.0%
$55 Vol.
5%
0.1%
$148 Vol.
11%
0.2%
$2,854 Vol.
35%
0.3%
$630 Vol.
36%
0.4%
$204 Vol.
13%
0.5%+
$146 Vol.
3%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Traders see 0.2% and 0.3% Core PCE month-over-month for August 2026 as nearly equally likely, reflecting uncertainty around persistent underlying inflation. July’s 0.2% reading aligned with forecasts but left the year-over-year rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, have highlighted sensitivity to incoming data, with August CPI due September 11 and the PCE release scheduled for September 30 shaping expectations ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Labor market stability and resilient consumer spending add to the balanced outlook, while any hotter-than-expected prints could reinforce rate-hike probabilities priced into Fed funds futures.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$4,102End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Traders see 0.2% and 0.3% Core PCE month-over-month for August 2026 as nearly equally likely, reflecting uncertainty around persistent underlying inflation. July’s 0.2% reading aligned with forecasts but left the year-over-year rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, have highlighted sensitivity to incoming data, with August CPI due September 11 and the PCE release scheduled for September 30 shaping expectations ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Labor market stability and resilient consumer spending add to the balanced outlook, while any hotter-than-expected prints could reinforce rate-hike probabilities priced into Fed funds futures.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$4,102End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 0.2% and 0.3% Core PCE month-over-month for August 2026 as nearly equally likely, reflecting uncertainty around persistent underlying inflation. July’s 0.2% reading aligned with forecasts but left the year-over-year rate at 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, have highlighted sensitivity to incoming data, with August CPI due September 11 and the PCE release scheduled for September 30 shaping expectations ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Labor market stability and resilient consumer spending add to the balanced outlook, while any hotter-than-expected prints could reinforce rate-hike probabilities priced into Fed funds futures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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