Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down one point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus, has anchored trader expectations for the September reading amid moderating new orders (53.7) and employment (51.2) while production held firm at 58.3. Elevated prices paid near 71.1, supplier delivery delays, and external pressures from tariffs plus Middle East tensions continue to weigh on demand momentum, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 53.0–56.9 brackets. The October 1 release will clarify whether the eight-month expansion streak sustains near these levels or faces further softening, with low customer inventories offering a potential offset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0 to 55.9 28%
53.0 to 53.9 26%
56.0 to 56.9 24%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
3%
50.0 to 50.9
1%
51.0 to 51.9
5%
52.0 to 52.9
15%
53.0 to 53.9
26%
54.0 to 54.9
17%
55.0 to 55.9
28%
56.0 to 56.9
24%
57.0 to 57.9
12%
58.0+
5%
55.0 to 55.9 28%
53.0 to 53.9 26%
56.0 to 56.9 24%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
$160 Vol.
3%
50.0 to 50.9
$885 Vol.
1%
51.0 to 51.9
$496 Vol.
5%
52.0 to 52.9
$34 Vol.
15%
53.0 to 53.9
$18 Vol.
26%
54.0 to 54.9
$34 Vol.
17%
55.0 to 55.9
$33 Vol.
28%
56.0 to 56.9
$18 Vol.
24%
57.0 to 57.9
$17 Vol.
12%
58.0+
$169 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down one point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus, has anchored trader expectations for the September reading amid moderating new orders (53.7) and employment (51.2) while production held firm at 58.3. Elevated prices paid near 71.1, supplier delivery delays, and external pressures from tariffs plus Middle East tensions continue to weigh on demand momentum, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 53.0–56.9 brackets. The October 1 release will clarify whether the eight-month expansion streak sustains near these levels or faces further softening, with low customer inventories offering a potential offset.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$1,863End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down one point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus, has anchored trader expectations for the September reading amid moderating new orders (53.7) and employment (51.2) while production held firm at 58.3. Elevated prices paid near 71.1, supplier delivery delays, and external pressures from tariffs plus Middle East tensions continue to weigh on demand momentum, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 53.0–56.9 brackets. The October 1 release will clarify whether the eight-month expansion streak sustains near these levels or faces further softening, with low customer inventories offering a potential offset.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,863End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down one point from July’s 55.6 and below the 55.2 consensus, has anchored trader expectations for the September reading amid moderating new orders (53.7) and employment (51.2) while production held firm at 58.3. Elevated prices paid near 71.1, supplier delivery delays, and external pressures from tariffs plus Middle East tensions continue to weigh on demand momentum, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 53.0–56.9 brackets. The October 1 release will clarify whether the eight-month expansion streak sustains near these levels or faces further softening, with low customer inventories offering a potential offset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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