Ciro Gomes maintains a strong lead in the Ceará governor race, reflected in trader consensus at 65% implied probability, driven by consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Datafolha show Gomes ahead in first-round and runoff scenarios, bolstered by his prior governorship from 1991–1994, PSDB-Cidadania nomination in July, and emphasis on public security during the August 9 debate. Elmano de Freitas trails at 35%, seeking reelection amid campaign contrasts on state management. Minor candidates including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible support below 1%, with the first round scheduled for October 4, 2026. These dynamics align with the wisdom of crowds in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 67%
Elmano de Freitas 34%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,845 Vol.
$128,845 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
67%
Elmano de Freitas
34%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 67%
Elmano de Freitas 34%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,845 Vol.
$128,845 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
$75,242 Vol.
67%
Elmano de Freitas
$22,833 Vol.
34%
Eduardo Girão
$8,786 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$6,412 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$7,489 Vol.
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$8,537 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes maintains a strong lead in the Ceará governor race, reflected in trader consensus at 65% implied probability, driven by consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Datafolha show Gomes ahead in first-round and runoff scenarios, bolstered by his prior governorship from 1991–1994, PSDB-Cidadania nomination in July, and emphasis on public security during the August 9 debate. Elmano de Freitas trails at 35%, seeking reelection amid campaign contrasts on state management. Minor candidates including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible support below 1%, with the first round scheduled for October 4, 2026. These dynamics align with the wisdom of crowds in current market pricing.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$128,845End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes maintains a strong lead in the Ceará governor race, reflected in trader consensus at 65% implied probability, driven by consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Datafolha show Gomes ahead in first-round and runoff scenarios, bolstered by his prior governorship from 1991–1994, PSDB-Cidadania nomination in July, and emphasis on public security during the August 9 debate. Elmano de Freitas trails at 35%, seeking reelection amid campaign contrasts on state management. Minor candidates including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible support below 1%, with the first round scheduled for October 4, 2026. These dynamics align with the wisdom of crowds in current market pricing.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$128,845End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes maintains a strong lead in the Ceará governor race, reflected in trader consensus at 65% implied probability, driven by consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Datafolha show Gomes ahead in first-round and runoff scenarios, bolstered by his prior governorship from 1991–1994, PSDB-Cidadania nomination in July, and emphasis on public security during the August 9 debate. Elmano de Freitas trails at 35%, seeking reelection amid campaign contrasts on state management. Minor candidates including Eduardo Girão, Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible support below 1%, with the first round scheduled for October 4, 2026. These dynamics align with the wisdom of crowds in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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