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Elections·Brazil

Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner

icon for Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner

Cleitinho Azevedo 64.7%

Alexandre Kalil 9.4%

Mateus Simões 8.0%

Flávio Roscoe 5.1%

Polymarket

$350,170 Vol.

Cleitinho Azevedo 64.7%

Alexandre Kalil 9.4%

Mateus Simões 8.0%

Flávio Roscoe 5.1%

Polymarket

$350,170 Vol.

icon for Cleitinho Azevedo

Cleitinho Azevedo

$148,893 Vol.

65%

icon for Alexandre Kalil

Alexandre Kalil

$36,711 Vol.

9%

icon for Mateus Simões

Mateus Simões

$31,712 Vol.

8%

icon for Flávio Roscoe

Flávio Roscoe

$9,651 Vol.

5%

icon for Patrus Ananias

Patrus Ananias

$8,869 Vol.

4%

icon for Luís Eduardo Falcão

Luís Eduardo Falcão

$7,222 Vol.

1%

icon for Rodrigo Pacheco

Rodrigo Pacheco

$19,590 Vol.

1%

icon for Benoni Mendes

Benoni Mendes

$6,953 Vol.

1%

icon for Gabriel Azevedo

Gabriel Azevedo

$7,957 Vol.

1%

icon for Euclydes Pettersen

Euclydes Pettersen

$4,929 Vol.

1%

icon for Marcelo Aro

Marcelo Aro

$33,398 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gleidson Azevedo

Gleidson Azevedo

$4,705 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nikolas Ferreira

Nikolas Ferreira

$8,379 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aécio Neves

Aécio Neves

$4,934 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vittorio Medioli

Vittorio Medioli

$5,043 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tadeu Leite

Tadeu Leite

$5,958 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alexandre Silveira

Alexandre Silveira

$5,265 Vol.

<1%

The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cleitinho Azevedo leads the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial race with the highest implied probability in trader consensus, driven by consistent first-round polling leads of 30-45% and strong hypothetical runoff performance against rivals. Recent confirmation of his Republicans candidacy on August 7, following repeated party reversals and personal circumstances, has clarified his path and reinforced positioning ahead of the October 4 election. Incumbent Mateus Simões of the PSD, who assumed the governorship in March 2026, and challengers including Alexandre Kalil and others face a fragmented field with lower single-digit to low-double-digit support in surveys. The resolution of Azevedo’s status has narrowed uncertainty, though the first-round format and coalition dynamics could still influence outcomes before voting.

The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$350,170
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cleitinho Azevedo leads the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial race with the highest implied probability in trader consensus, driven by consistent first-round polling leads of 30-45% and strong hypothetical runoff performance against rivals. Recent confirmation of his Republicans candidacy on August 7, following repeated party reversals and personal circumstances, has clarified his path and reinforced positioning ahead of the October 4 election. Incumbent Mateus Simões of the PSD, who assumed the governorship in March 2026, and challengers including Alexandre Kalil and others face a fragmented field with lower single-digit to low-double-digit support in surveys. The resolution of Azevedo’s status has narrowed uncertainty, though the first-round format and coalition dynamics could still influence outcomes before voting.

The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$350,170
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cleitinho Azevedo" at 65%, followed by "Alexandre Kalil" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner" has generated $350.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner" is "Cleitinho Azevedo" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandre Kalil" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.