SDS maintains the highest trader-implied probability for third place in the October 4, 2026, election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 42-seat House of Representatives because its performance in Republika Srpska’s 14-seat allocation could place it ahead of fragmented Federation-based parties. The race remains tight among SDS, several Bosniak and Croat lists, and smaller Serb options due to entity-based proportional representation, a 3% threshold, and compensatory mandates that reward efficient vote concentration within each entity. Recent coalition collapse at state level, persistent RS-Federation tensions, and the rollout of biometric verification and electronic counting have kept voter mobilization uncertain without shifting established ethnic voting patterns. Late campaign developments such as turnout differences between entities, any last-minute coalition signals, or stronger-than-expected results for HDZ BiH or SDP BiH lists could quickly reorder the middle rankings once results are tabulated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
HDZ BiH 35%
SDP BiH 35%
SDS 27%
DF 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
HDZ BiH
35%
SDP BiH
35%
SDS
50%
DF
25%
SNSD
18%
NiP
17%
SDA
14%
HDZ BiH 35%
SDP BiH 35%
SDS 27%
DF 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
HDZ BiH
$19 Vol.
35%
SDP BiH
$19 Vol.
35%
SDS
$30 Vol.
50%
DF
$19 Vol.
25%
SNSD
$19 Vol.
18%
NiP
$19 Vol.
17%
SDA
$19 Vol.
14%
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).SDS maintains the highest trader-implied probability for third place in the October 4, 2026, election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 42-seat House of Representatives because its performance in Republika Srpska’s 14-seat allocation could place it ahead of fragmented Federation-based parties. The race remains tight among SDS, several Bosniak and Croat lists, and smaller Serb options due to entity-based proportional representation, a 3% threshold, and compensatory mandates that reward efficient vote concentration within each entity. Recent coalition collapse at state level, persistent RS-Federation tensions, and the rollout of biometric verification and electronic counting have kept voter mobilization uncertain without shifting established ethnic voting patterns. Late campaign developments such as turnout differences between entities, any last-minute coalition signals, or stronger-than-expected results for HDZ BiH or SDP BiH lists could quickly reorder the middle rankings once results are tabulated.
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$144End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).SDS maintains the highest trader-implied probability for third place in the October 4, 2026, election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 42-seat House of Representatives because its performance in Republika Srpska’s 14-seat allocation could place it ahead of fragmented Federation-based parties. The race remains tight among SDS, several Bosniak and Croat lists, and smaller Serb options due to entity-based proportional representation, a 3% threshold, and compensatory mandates that reward efficient vote concentration within each entity. Recent coalition collapse at state level, persistent RS-Federation tensions, and the rollout of biometric verification and electronic counting have kept voter mobilization uncertain without shifting established ethnic voting patterns. Late campaign developments such as turnout differences between entities, any last-minute coalition signals, or stronger-than-expected results for HDZ BiH or SDP BiH lists could quickly reorder the middle rankings once results are tabulated.
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
Volume
$144End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SDS maintains the highest trader-implied probability for third place in the October 4, 2026, election for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 42-seat House of Representatives because its performance in Republika Srpska’s 14-seat allocation could place it ahead of fragmented Federation-based parties. The race remains tight among SDS, several Bosniak and Croat lists, and smaller Serb options due to entity-based proportional representation, a 3% threshold, and compensatory mandates that reward efficient vote concentration within each entity. Recent coalition collapse at state level, persistent RS-Federation tensions, and the rollout of biometric verification and electronic counting have kept voter mobilization uncertain without shifting established ethnic voting patterns. Late campaign developments such as turnout differences between entities, any last-minute coalition signals, or stronger-than-expected results for HDZ BiH or SDP BiH lists could quickly reorder the middle rankings once results are tabulated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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