Recent polls after the September 8-9 candidate list deadline show roughly a dozen parties positioned to clear Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset seats on October 27, though outcomes remain fluid. Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, and Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, lead most surveys with 19-27 seats each, while B'Yachad, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Joint List or Ra'am typically project 5-13 seats. Smaller lists, including Religious Zionism-Zehut, Ofer Winter's People of Israel, and various centrist or Arab factions, hover near or below the threshold, making surplus-vote pacts and turnout shifts decisive. Neither pro- nor anti-Netanyahu bloc consistently reaches a 61-seat majority in current averages, heightening the impact of which marginal parties enter the 120-seat chamber.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 30, 2026
RZP-Zehut
90%
Ra'am
83%
Amcha Yisrael
60%
Reservists and New Economic Party
28%
Blue & White
14%
$1,008 Vol.
RZP-Zehut
$724 Vol.
90%
Ra'am
$63 Vol.
83%
Amcha Yisrael
$30 Vol.
60%
Reservists and New Economic Party
$19 Vol.
28%
Blue & White
$172 Vol.
14%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls after the September 8-9 candidate list deadline show roughly a dozen parties positioned to clear Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset seats on October 27, though outcomes remain fluid. Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, and Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, lead most surveys with 19-27 seats each, while B'Yachad, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Joint List or Ra'am typically project 5-13 seats. Smaller lists, including Religious Zionism-Zehut, Ofer Winter's People of Israel, and various centrist or Arab factions, hover near or below the threshold, making surplus-vote pacts and turnout shifts decisive. Neither pro- nor anti-Netanyahu bloc consistently reaches a 61-seat majority in current averages, heightening the impact of which marginal parties enter the 120-seat chamber.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,008End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls after the September 8-9 candidate list deadline show roughly a dozen parties positioned to clear Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset seats on October 27, though outcomes remain fluid. Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, and Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, lead most surveys with 19-27 seats each, while B'Yachad, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Joint List or Ra'am typically project 5-13 seats. Smaller lists, including Religious Zionism-Zehut, Ofer Winter's People of Israel, and various centrist or Arab factions, hover near or below the threshold, making surplus-vote pacts and turnout shifts decisive. Neither pro- nor anti-Netanyahu bloc consistently reaches a 61-seat majority in current averages, heightening the impact of which marginal parties enter the 120-seat chamber.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$1,008End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls after the September 8-9 candidate list deadline show roughly a dozen parties positioned to clear Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold for Knesset seats on October 27, though outcomes remain fluid. Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, and Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, lead most surveys with 19-27 seats each, while B'Yachad, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and the Joint List or Ra'am typically project 5-13 seats. Smaller lists, including Religious Zionism-Zehut, Ofer Winter's People of Israel, and various centrist or Arab factions, hover near or below the threshold, making surplus-vote pacts and turnout shifts decisive. Neither pro- nor anti-Netanyahu bloc consistently reaches a 61-seat majority in current averages, heightening the impact of which marginal parties enter the 120-seat chamber.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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