The fragmented field of declared candidates for the October 9-10 first-round primary—primarily Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel—keeps the contest for second place highly competitive, as no single contender has consolidated broad support among PS members and Place Publique sympathizers ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Recent scheduling of multi-candidate debates on LCI, France 2, and BFMTV, combined with internal tensions over primary rules and potential inclusions, has sustained uncertainty without producing clear momentum shifts. Trader consensus reflects this dispersion, with implied probabilities for second place remaining modest and sensitive to late endorsements, turnout among new adherents, and differentiation on purchasing power, European policy, and party renewal. Further separation could emerge from strong debate performances or regional backing in the final weeks before electronic voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOlivier Faure 56%
Raphaël Glucksmann 24%
Philippe Brun 21%
Ségolène Royal 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 10, 2026
Olivier Faure
34%
Raphaël Glucksmann
24%
Philippe Brun
21%
Ségolène Royal
20%
Jérôme Guedj
29%
Emmanuel Maurel
20%
Olivier Faure 56%
Raphaël Glucksmann 24%
Philippe Brun 21%
Ségolène Royal 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 10, 2026
Olivier Faure
$51 Vol.
34%
Raphaël Glucksmann
$31 Vol.
24%
Philippe Brun
$20 Vol.
21%
Ségolène Royal
$20 Vol.
20%
Jérôme Guedj
$38 Vol.
29%
Emmanuel Maurel
$107 Vol.
20%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The fragmented field of declared candidates for the October 9-10 first-round primary—primarily Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel—keeps the contest for second place highly competitive, as no single contender has consolidated broad support among PS members and Place Publique sympathizers ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Recent scheduling of multi-candidate debates on LCI, France 2, and BFMTV, combined with internal tensions over primary rules and potential inclusions, has sustained uncertainty without producing clear momentum shifts. Trader consensus reflects this dispersion, with implied probabilities for second place remaining modest and sensitive to late endorsements, turnout among new adherents, and differentiation on purchasing power, European policy, and party renewal. Further separation could emerge from strong debate performances or regional backing in the final weeks before electronic voting.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$268End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The fragmented field of declared candidates for the October 9-10 first-round primary—primarily Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel—keeps the contest for second place highly competitive, as no single contender has consolidated broad support among PS members and Place Publique sympathizers ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Recent scheduling of multi-candidate debates on LCI, France 2, and BFMTV, combined with internal tensions over primary rules and potential inclusions, has sustained uncertainty without producing clear momentum shifts. Trader consensus reflects this dispersion, with implied probabilities for second place remaining modest and sensitive to late endorsements, turnout among new adherents, and differentiation on purchasing power, European policy, and party renewal. Further separation could emerge from strong debate performances or regional backing in the final weeks before electronic voting.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$268End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented field of declared candidates for the October 9-10 first-round primary—primarily Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel—keeps the contest for second place highly competitive, as no single contender has consolidated broad support among PS members and Place Publique sympathizers ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Recent scheduling of multi-candidate debates on LCI, France 2, and BFMTV, combined with internal tensions over primary rules and potential inclusions, has sustained uncertainty without producing clear momentum shifts. Trader consensus reflects this dispersion, with implied probabilities for second place remaining modest and sensitive to late endorsements, turnout among new adherents, and differentiation on purchasing power, European policy, and party renewal. Further separation could emerge from strong debate performances or regional backing in the final weeks before electronic voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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