**David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary with 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong’s 39.4%, producing a 0.4-point margin that aligns directly with the market’s dominant 0.4–0.6% bracket.** Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive and a moderate backed by term-limited Gov. Tony Evers, overcame late polling deficits through stronger fundraising in the final weeks, broader appeal among undecided voters, and positioning as the stronger general-election candidate against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany in the swing state. Hong, a democratic socialist state representative, had led most surveys by double digits until the closing days, when momentum shifted toward Crowley in a result that echoed historical polling misses in Wisconsin contests. With other candidates (Kelda Roys, Joel Brennan) splitting the remaining vote, the top-two finish produced an exceptionally tight outcome under 0.5 points. Hong conceded after initial counts, effectively closing the window for a recount given the sub-1% margin. While final certification or any remaining provisional ballots could produce minor adjustments, the current tabulated totals place the result squarely inside the leading bracket, explaining the overwhelming trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrowley 0.4–0.6% 97.8%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.6%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$212,829 Vol.
$212,829 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
Hong 1%+
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
<1%
Hong <0.2%
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
2%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
98%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
<1%
Crowley 2%+
<1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6% 97.8%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.6%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$212,829 Vol.
$212,829 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
Hong 1%+
$319 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
$232 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
$694 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
$716 Vol.
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
$749 Vol.
<1%
Hong <0.2%
$576 Vol.
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
$37,493 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
$41,284 Vol.
2%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
$38,847 Vol.
98%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
$29,970 Vol.
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
$26,575 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
$30,077 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
$1,194 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
$1,140 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
$1,181 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
$1,261 Vol.
<1%
Crowley 2%+
$521 Vol.
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary with 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong’s 39.4%, producing a 0.4-point margin that aligns directly with the market’s dominant 0.4–0.6% bracket.**
Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive and a moderate backed by term-limited Gov. Tony Evers, overcame late polling deficits through stronger fundraising in the final weeks, broader appeal among undecided voters, and positioning as the stronger general-election candidate against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany in the swing state. Hong, a democratic socialist state representative, had led most surveys by double digits until the closing days, when momentum shifted toward Crowley in a result that echoed historical polling misses in Wisconsin contests. With other candidates (Kelda Roys, Joel Brennan) splitting the remaining vote, the top-two finish produced an exceptionally tight outcome under 0.5 points.
Hong conceded after initial counts, effectively closing the window for a recount given the sub-1% margin. While final certification or any remaining provisional ballots could produce minor adjustments, the current tabulated totals place the result squarely inside the leading bracket, explaining the overwhelming trader consensus.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
Volume
$212,829End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.**David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary with 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong’s 39.4%, producing a 0.4-point margin that aligns directly with the market’s dominant 0.4–0.6% bracket.**
Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive and a moderate backed by term-limited Gov. Tony Evers, overcame late polling deficits through stronger fundraising in the final weeks, broader appeal among undecided voters, and positioning as the stronger general-election candidate against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany in the swing state. Hong, a democratic socialist state representative, had led most surveys by double digits until the closing days, when momentum shifted toward Crowley in a result that echoed historical polling misses in Wisconsin contests. With other candidates (Kelda Roys, Joel Brennan) splitting the remaining vote, the top-two finish produced an exceptionally tight outcome under 0.5 points.
Hong conceded after initial counts, effectively closing the window for a recount given the sub-1% margin. While final certification or any remaining provisional ballots could produce minor adjustments, the current tabulated totals place the result squarely inside the leading bracket, explaining the overwhelming trader consensus.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$212,829End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**David Crowley secured the Democratic nomination for Wisconsin governor in the August 11, 2026 primary with 39.8% of the vote to Francesca Hong’s 39.4%, producing a 0.4-point margin that aligns directly with the market’s dominant 0.4–0.6% bracket.** Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive and a moderate backed by term-limited Gov. Tony Evers, overcame late polling deficits through stronger fundraising in the final weeks, broader appeal among undecided voters, and positioning as the stronger general-election candidate against Republican nominee Tom Tiffany in the swing state. Hong, a democratic socialist state representative, had led most surveys by double digits until the closing days, when momentum shifted toward Crowley in a result that echoed historical polling misses in Wisconsin contests. With other candidates (Kelda Roys, Joel Brennan) splitting the remaining vote, the top-two finish produced an exceptionally tight outcome under 0.5 points. Hong conceded after initial counts, effectively closing the window for a recount given the sub-1% margin. While final certification or any remaining provisional ballots could produce minor adjustments, the current tabulated totals place the result squarely inside the leading bracket, explaining the overwhelming trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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