Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 43 percent of the vote against a crowded field, producing a margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki that aligns with the 20–25 percent range. Trader consensus reflects Masterson’s position as Senate president, consolidated support from President Trump’s endorsement, superior fundraising, and name recognition in a solidly Republican state where the open seat created by term limits on Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly favored an established legislative figure. A fragmented opposition split the remaining votes among six other candidates, including state officials such as Vicki Schmidt and Scott Schwab. While preliminary tallies appear decisive, the market could still shift on official certification delays, targeted recounts in specific precincts, or narrow legal challenges to tabulation, though these remain low-probability outcomes given the reported spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMasterson 20–25% 98.0%
Masterson 5–10% 1.9%
Masterson 15–20% 1.8%
Masterson 10–15% <1%
$18,836 Vol.
$18,836 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Masterson 25%+
<1%
Masterson 20–25%
98%
Masterson 15–20%
2%
Masterson 10–15%
<1%
Masterson 5–10%
2%
Masterson <5%
<1%
Masterson 20–25% 98.0%
Masterson 5–10% 1.9%
Masterson 15–20% 1.8%
Masterson 10–15% <1%
$18,836 Vol.
$18,836 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Masterson 25%+
$6,229 Vol.
<1%
Masterson 20–25%
$1,832 Vol.
98%
Masterson 15–20%
$1,256 Vol.
2%
Masterson 10–15%
$1,543 Vol.
<1%
Masterson 5–10%
$1,111 Vol.
2%
Masterson <5%
$2,563 Vol.
<1%
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 43 percent of the vote against a crowded field, producing a margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki that aligns with the 20–25 percent range. Trader consensus reflects Masterson’s position as Senate president, consolidated support from President Trump’s endorsement, superior fundraising, and name recognition in a solidly Republican state where the open seat created by term limits on Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly favored an established legislative figure. A fragmented opposition split the remaining votes among six other candidates, including state officials such as Vicki Schmidt and Scott Schwab. While preliminary tallies appear decisive, the market could still shift on official certification delays, targeted recounts in specific precincts, or narrow legal challenges to tabulation, though these remain low-probability outcomes given the reported spread.
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ET
Volume
$18,836End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 43 percent of the vote against a crowded field, producing a margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki that aligns with the 20–25 percent range. Trader consensus reflects Masterson’s position as Senate president, consolidated support from President Trump’s endorsement, superior fundraising, and name recognition in a solidly Republican state where the open seat created by term limits on Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly favored an established legislative figure. A fragmented opposition split the remaining votes among six other candidates, including state officials such as Vicki Schmidt and Scott Schwab. While preliminary tallies appear decisive, the market could still shift on official certification delays, targeted recounts in specific precincts, or narrow legal challenges to tabulation, though these remain low-probability outcomes given the reported spread.
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$18,836End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ty Masterson secured the Republican nomination for Kansas governor in the August 4, 2026 primary with roughly 43 percent of the vote against a crowded field, producing a margin over second-place finisher Philip Sarnecki that aligns with the 20–25 percent range. Trader consensus reflects Masterson’s position as Senate president, consolidated support from President Trump’s endorsement, superior fundraising, and name recognition in a solidly Republican state where the open seat created by term limits on Democratic incumbent Laura Kelly favored an established legislative figure. A fragmented opposition split the remaining votes among six other candidates, including state officials such as Vicki Schmidt and Scott Schwab. While preliminary tallies appear decisive, the market could still shift on official certification delays, targeted recounts in specific precincts, or narrow legal challenges to tabulation, though these remain low-probability outcomes given the reported spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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