Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth secured the Republican nomination for governor in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Mike Lindell and other challengers with approximately 43.6% of the vote to Lindell's 32.3%. This produced an 11-point margin that aligns with the market's overwhelming consensus on a Demuth victory exceeding 10 points. Party-endorsed establishment support, Demuth's legislative record in a divided House, and voter preference for her over the Trump-backed Lindell shaped the outcome amid a crowded field that also included Kendall Qualls. Lindell has not conceded and has raised questions about vote totals, yet official projections and partial counts show no indication of a margin shift. A formal recount, certification dispute, or successful legal challenge remains the primary route that could alter the final reported spread before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemuth 10%+ 97.5%
Demuth 5–10% 2.4%
Demuth <5% 1.9%
Lindell 25%+ 1.9%
$774 Vol.
$774 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Lindell 25%+
2%
Lindell 20–25%
2%
Lindell 15–20%
2%
Lindell 10–15%
1%
Lindell 5–10%
2%
Lindell <5%
1%
Demuth <5%
2%
Demuth 5–10%
2%
Demuth 10%+
98%
Demuth 10%+ 97.5%
Demuth 5–10% 2.4%
Demuth <5% 1.9%
Lindell 25%+ 1.9%
$774 Vol.
$774 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Lindell 25%+
$57 Vol.
2%
Lindell 20–25%
$37 Vol.
2%
Lindell 15–20%
$37 Vol.
2%
Lindell 10–15%
$172 Vol.
1%
Lindell 5–10%
$17 Vol.
2%
Lindell <5%
$217 Vol.
1%
Demuth <5%
$217 Vol.
2%
Demuth 5–10%
$0 Vol.
2%
Demuth 10%+
$20 Vol.
98%
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth secured the Republican nomination for governor in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Mike Lindell and other challengers with approximately 43.6% of the vote to Lindell's 32.3%. This produced an 11-point margin that aligns with the market's overwhelming consensus on a Demuth victory exceeding 10 points. Party-endorsed establishment support, Demuth's legislative record in a divided House, and voter preference for her over the Trump-backed Lindell shaped the outcome amid a crowded field that also included Kendall Qualls. Lindell has not conceded and has raised questions about vote totals, yet official projections and partial counts show no indication of a margin shift. A formal recount, certification dispute, or successful legal challenge remains the primary route that could alter the final reported spread before market resolution.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Volume
$774End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth secured the Republican nomination for governor in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Mike Lindell and other challengers with approximately 43.6% of the vote to Lindell's 32.3%. This produced an 11-point margin that aligns with the market's overwhelming consensus on a Demuth victory exceeding 10 points. Party-endorsed establishment support, Demuth's legislative record in a divided House, and voter preference for her over the Trump-backed Lindell shaped the outcome amid a crowded field that also included Kendall Qualls. Lindell has not conceded and has raised questions about vote totals, yet official projections and partial counts show no indication of a margin shift. A formal recount, certification dispute, or successful legal challenge remains the primary route that could alter the final reported spread before market resolution.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$774End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth secured the Republican nomination for governor in the August 11, 2026 primary, defeating Mike Lindell and other challengers with approximately 43.6% of the vote to Lindell's 32.3%. This produced an 11-point margin that aligns with the market's overwhelming consensus on a Demuth victory exceeding 10 points. Party-endorsed establishment support, Demuth's legislative record in a divided House, and voter preference for her over the Trump-backed Lindell shaped the outcome amid a crowded field that also included Kendall Qualls. Lindell has not conceded and has raised questions about vote totals, yet official projections and partial counts show no indication of a margin shift. A formal recount, certification dispute, or successful legal challenge remains the primary route that could alter the final reported spread before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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