Skip to main content
icon for FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Florida

FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Florida

FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Bale Dalton 96.1%

Marialana Kinter 4.7%

Alan Grayson 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Bale Dalton 96.1%

Marialana Kinter 4.7%

Alan Grayson 1.6%

Polymarket
NEW

Bale Dalton

$5,052 Vol.

96%

Marialana Kinter

$3,006 Vol.

5%

Alan Grayson

$960 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bale Dalton maintains a dominant position in the FL-07 Democratic primary due to substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $1.2 million, early DCCC Red to Blue designation as a top-tier challenger, and endorsements from party leaders including Rep. Lois Frankel. As a Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff with deep Central Florida roots, Dalton has consolidated support ahead of the August 18 primary through superior organization and visibility in candidate forums. Rivals such as former Rep. Alan Grayson and Marialana Kinter trail significantly in resources and polling indicators. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural edges, though outcomes could shift if unexpected turnout patterns or late developments alter participation among Democratic primary voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,018
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Bale Dalton maintains a dominant position in the FL-07 Democratic primary due to substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $1.2 million, early DCCC Red to Blue designation as a top-tier challenger, and endorsements from party leaders including Rep. Lois Frankel. As a Navy veteran and former NASA chief of staff with deep Central Florida roots, Dalton has consolidated support ahead of the August 18 primary through superior organization and visibility in candidate forums. Rivals such as former Rep. Alan Grayson and Marialana Kinter trail significantly in resources and polling indicators. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural edges, though outcomes could shift if unexpected turnout patterns or late developments alter participation among Democratic primary voters.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,018
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 26, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?

Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee?

68%
icon for Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

96%
icon for Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?

55%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bale Dalton" at 96%, followed by "Marialana Kinter" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Bale Dalton" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marialana Kinter" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.