Democrats' strong positioning to capture House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will advance before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority that prevents any floor vote, though isolated Democratic resolutions have already targeted foreign policy statements tied to Iran and other executive actions. Historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party when presidential approval sits near or below 45%, and recent generic ballot averages reflect a Democratic edge sufficient to flip the chamber. Once in majority, Democrats could prioritize impeachment proceedings on high-profile issues without needing Republican crossover support. Traders price in this pathway while noting that Senate conviction remains a separate and steeper threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated62% chance
$89,034 Vol.
$89,034 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
62% chance
$89,034 Vol.
$89,034 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong positioning to capture House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will advance before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority that prevents any floor vote, though isolated Democratic resolutions have already targeted foreign policy statements tied to Iran and other executive actions. Historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party when presidential approval sits near or below 45%, and recent generic ballot averages reflect a Democratic edge sufficient to flip the chamber. Once in majority, Democrats could prioritize impeachment proceedings on high-profile issues without needing Republican crossover support. Traders price in this pathway while noting that Senate conviction remains a separate and steeper threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$89,034End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democrats' strong positioning to capture House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will advance before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority that prevents any floor vote, though isolated Democratic resolutions have already targeted foreign policy statements tied to Iran and other executive actions. Historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party when presidential approval sits near or below 45%, and recent generic ballot averages reflect a Democratic edge sufficient to flip the chamber. Once in majority, Democrats could prioritize impeachment proceedings on high-profile issues without needing Republican crossover support. Traders price in this pathway while noting that Senate conviction remains a separate and steeper threshold.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$89,034End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats' strong positioning to capture House control in the November 2026 midterms forms the central driver behind the 62% implied probability that articles of impeachment will advance before January 2029. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority that prevents any floor vote, though isolated Democratic resolutions have already targeted foreign policy statements tied to Iran and other executive actions. Historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party when presidential approval sits near or below 45%, and recent generic ballot averages reflect a Democratic edge sufficient to flip the chamber. Once in majority, Democrats could prioritize impeachment proceedings on high-profile issues without needing Republican crossover support. Traders price in this pathway while noting that Senate conviction remains a separate and steeper threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions