Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21-24 seats, well below its 32-seat total from 2022, amid consistent opposition gains by parties including Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar. Key drivers include sustained voter shifts following the October 2023 attacks, prolonged security operations, and internal coalition strains, with Netanyahu's bloc often polling under the 61-seat majority threshold. Likud primaries disputes and party-list adjustments have added to perceptions of weakness, while centrist and other right-leaning alternatives draw support. These trends have produced a broad trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for a seat decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated90% chance
$10,890 Vol.
$10,890 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
90% chance
$10,890 Vol.
$10,890 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21-24 seats, well below its 32-seat total from 2022, amid consistent opposition gains by parties including Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar. Key drivers include sustained voter shifts following the October 2023 attacks, prolonged security operations, and internal coalition strains, with Netanyahu's bloc often polling under the 61-seat majority threshold. Likud primaries disputes and party-list adjustments have added to perceptions of weakness, while centrist and other right-leaning alternatives draw support. These trends have produced a broad trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for a seat decline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$10,890End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21-24 seats, well below its 32-seat total from 2022, amid consistent opposition gains by parties including Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar. Key drivers include sustained voter shifts following the October 2023 attacks, prolonged security operations, and internal coalition strains, with Netanyahu's bloc often polling under the 61-seat majority threshold. Likud primaries disputes and party-list adjustments have added to perceptions of weakness, while centrist and other right-leaning alternatives draw support. These trends have produced a broad trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for a seat decline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$10,890End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election project Likud at 21-24 seats, well below its 32-seat total from 2022, amid consistent opposition gains by parties including Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar. Key drivers include sustained voter shifts following the October 2023 attacks, prolonged security operations, and internal coalition strains, with Netanyahu's bloc often polling under the 61-seat majority threshold. Likud primaries disputes and party-list adjustments have added to perceptions of weakness, while centrist and other right-leaning alternatives draw support. These trends have produced a broad trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for a seat decline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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