The next Berlin state election for the Abgeordnetenhaus is set for 20 September 2026, with roughly five weeks remaining. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner faces headwinds after Wegner withdrew as lead candidate in July amid scandals over crisis response and internal party pressure; Finance Senator Stefan Evers now heads the CDU ticket while Steffen Krach leads the SPD. Recent polling shows a fragmented field with Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a trailing SPD, pointing to five parties likely entering parliament. Coalition formation will hinge on the long-standing firewall excluding the AfD and negotiations over housing policy, including expropriation demands favored by the Left. Key variables include turnout among younger voters, final campaign positioning on budgets and infrastructure, and post-election arithmetic that could revive the grand coalition, enable a CDU–Greens pairing, or produce a center-left arrangement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
Grüne
88%
SPD
86%
CDU
56%
Linke
54%
FDP
6%
AfD
6%
FW
4%
BSW
4%
$2,996 Vol.
Grüne
$83 Vol.
88%
SPD
$166 Vol.
86%
CDU
$271 Vol.
56%
Linke
$359 Vol.
54%
FDP
$146 Vol.
6%
AfD
$1,118 Vol.
6%
FW
$573 Vol.
4%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The next Berlin state election for the Abgeordnetenhaus is set for 20 September 2026, with roughly five weeks remaining. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner faces headwinds after Wegner withdrew as lead candidate in July amid scandals over crisis response and internal party pressure; Finance Senator Stefan Evers now heads the CDU ticket while Steffen Krach leads the SPD. Recent polling shows a fragmented field with Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a trailing SPD, pointing to five parties likely entering parliament. Coalition formation will hinge on the long-standing firewall excluding the AfD and negotiations over housing policy, including expropriation demands favored by the Left. Key variables include turnout among younger voters, final campaign positioning on budgets and infrastructure, and post-election arithmetic that could revive the grand coalition, enable a CDU–Greens pairing, or produce a center-left arrangement.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,996End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The next Berlin state election for the Abgeordnetenhaus is set for 20 September 2026, with roughly five weeks remaining. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner faces headwinds after Wegner withdrew as lead candidate in July amid scandals over crisis response and internal party pressure; Finance Senator Stefan Evers now heads the CDU ticket while Steffen Krach leads the SPD. Recent polling shows a fragmented field with Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a trailing SPD, pointing to five parties likely entering parliament. Coalition formation will hinge on the long-standing firewall excluding the AfD and negotiations over housing policy, including expropriation demands favored by the Left. Key variables include turnout among younger voters, final campaign positioning on budgets and infrastructure, and post-election arithmetic that could revive the grand coalition, enable a CDU–Greens pairing, or produce a center-left arrangement.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$2,996End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The next Berlin state election for the Abgeordnetenhaus is set for 20 September 2026, with roughly five weeks remaining. The incumbent CDU–SPD coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner faces headwinds after Wegner withdrew as lead candidate in July amid scandals over crisis response and internal party pressure; Finance Senator Stefan Evers now heads the CDU ticket while Steffen Krach leads the SPD. Recent polling shows a fragmented field with Die Linke narrowly ahead of the CDU, followed closely by the AfD, Greens, and a trailing SPD, pointing to five parties likely entering parliament. Coalition formation will hinge on the long-standing firewall excluding the AfD and negotiations over housing policy, including expropriation demands favored by the Left. Key variables include turnout among younger voters, final campaign positioning on budgets and infrastructure, and post-election arithmetic that could revive the grand coalition, enable a CDU–Greens pairing, or produce a center-left arrangement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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