AfD leads polls by wide margins in the two eastern states holding September 2026 elections—Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20—with support near or above 40 percent in both, far ahead of the CDU and other parties. This positioning stems from sustained voter shifts toward the party on immigration and economic issues amid low federal coalition approval. Smaller parties risk falling below the 5 percent threshold, which could convert AfD's vote share into an outright seat majority or clear plurality in either or both Landtage. Recent national polling gains for AfD have reinforced expectations it will finish first in both contests, making two the clear trader consensus outcome while leaving room for one if turnout or threshold dynamics shift sharply in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2 75%
3 14.4%
1 12.2%
0 <1%
$52,288 Vol.
$52,288 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
<1%
1
12%
2
75%
3
14%
2 75%
3 14.4%
1 12.2%
0 <1%
$52,288 Vol.
$52,288 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$5,059 Vol.
<1%
1
$12,648 Vol.
12%
2
$20,535 Vol.
75%
3
$14,046 Vol.
14%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by wide margins in the two eastern states holding September 2026 elections—Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20—with support near or above 40 percent in both, far ahead of the CDU and other parties. This positioning stems from sustained voter shifts toward the party on immigration and economic issues amid low federal coalition approval. Smaller parties risk falling below the 5 percent threshold, which could convert AfD's vote share into an outright seat majority or clear plurality in either or both Landtage. Recent national polling gains for AfD have reinforced expectations it will finish first in both contests, making two the clear trader consensus outcome while leaving room for one if turnout or threshold dynamics shift sharply in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$52,288End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by wide margins in the two eastern states holding September 2026 elections—Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20—with support near or above 40 percent in both, far ahead of the CDU and other parties. This positioning stems from sustained voter shifts toward the party on immigration and economic issues amid low federal coalition approval. Smaller parties risk falling below the 5 percent threshold, which could convert AfD's vote share into an outright seat majority or clear plurality in either or both Landtage. Recent national polling gains for AfD have reinforced expectations it will finish first in both contests, making two the clear trader consensus outcome while leaving room for one if turnout or threshold dynamics shift sharply in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Volume
$52,288End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...AfD leads polls by wide margins in the two eastern states holding September 2026 elections—Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20—with support near or above 40 percent in both, far ahead of the CDU and other parties. This positioning stems from sustained voter shifts toward the party on immigration and economic issues amid low federal coalition approval. Smaller parties risk falling below the 5 percent threshold, which could convert AfD's vote share into an outright seat majority or clear plurality in either or both Landtage. Recent national polling gains for AfD have reinforced expectations it will finish first in both contests, making two the clear trader consensus outcome while leaving room for one if turnout or threshold dynamics shift sharply in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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