Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU at 9–10 percent, consistently at or below the threshold amid AfD leadership near 36 percent and SPD support around 29 percent. The Christian Democrats face structural pressure in eastern Germany from voter polarization between the AfD and the incumbent SPD under Manuela Schwesig, limiting CDU gains despite efforts to highlight competence teams and policy alternatives. Multiple surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August confirm single-digit or borderline results with no upward momentum, reflecting the party’s squeezed position relative to stronger competitors and the five-percent hurdle dynamics affecting smaller parties. This polling stability underpins trader consensus favoring the under outcome at current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 10%?
Over
41% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
41% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU at 9–10 percent, consistently at or below the threshold amid AfD leadership near 36 percent and SPD support around 29 percent. The Christian Democrats face structural pressure in eastern Germany from voter polarization between the AfD and the incumbent SPD under Manuela Schwesig, limiting CDU gains despite efforts to highlight competence teams and policy alternatives. Multiple surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August confirm single-digit or borderline results with no upward momentum, reflecting the party’s squeezed position relative to stronger competitors and the five-percent hurdle dynamics affecting smaller parties. This polling stability underpins trader consensus favoring the under outcome at current implied probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,639End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU at 9–10 percent, consistently at or below the threshold amid AfD leadership near 36 percent and SPD support around 29 percent. The Christian Democrats face structural pressure in eastern Germany from voter polarization between the AfD and the incumbent SPD under Manuela Schwesig, limiting CDU gains despite efforts to highlight competence teams and policy alternatives. Multiple surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August confirm single-digit or borderline results with no upward momentum, reflecting the party’s squeezed position relative to stronger competitors and the five-percent hurdle dynamics affecting smaller parties. This polling stability underpins trader consensus favoring the under outcome at current implied probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 10% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$1,639End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows the CDU at 9–10 percent, consistently at or below the threshold amid AfD leadership near 36 percent and SPD support around 29 percent. The Christian Democrats face structural pressure in eastern Germany from voter polarization between the AfD and the incumbent SPD under Manuela Schwesig, limiting CDU gains despite efforts to highlight competence teams and policy alternatives. Multiple surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap through mid-August confirm single-digit or borderline results with no upward momentum, reflecting the party’s squeezed position relative to stronger competitors and the five-percent hurdle dynamics affecting smaller parties. This polling stability underpins trader consensus favoring the under outcome at current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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