Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 currently tops key benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding arenas, giving it a strong recent edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol tier and Google’s Gemini 3.x models. xAI’s Grok 4.6 launch on August 12 delivered a rapid post-training jump that tied frontier scores at lower cost, highlighting how frequent updates can quickly reshape standings. Traders focus on ongoing model iterations, benchmark volatility across leaderboards like LMSYS Arena or LLM Stats, and the potential for additional releases from these labs plus DeepSeek before year-end to determine which companies secure a #1 ranking by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$118,854 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI
35%
20%
Alibaba
13%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
$118,854 Vol.
OpenAI
$22,532 Vol.
35%
$17,192 Vol.
20%
Alibaba
$3,311 Vol.
13%
Meta
$14,809 Vol.
13%
xAI
$8,762 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$6,630 Vol.
11%
Z.ai
$2,489 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$2,826 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$20,492 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$2,737 Vol.
8%
Microsoft
$3,469 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$1,901 Vol.
7%
Meituan
$2,331 Vol.
6%
Mistral
$9,373 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 currently tops key benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding arenas, giving it a strong recent edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol tier and Google’s Gemini 3.x models. xAI’s Grok 4.6 launch on August 12 delivered a rapid post-training jump that tied frontier scores at lower cost, highlighting how frequent updates can quickly reshape standings. Traders focus on ongoing model iterations, benchmark volatility across leaderboards like LMSYS Arena or LLM Stats, and the potential for additional releases from these labs plus DeepSeek before year-end to determine which companies secure a #1 ranking by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Volume
$118,854End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 currently tops key benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding arenas, giving it a strong recent edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol tier and Google’s Gemini 3.x models. xAI’s Grok 4.6 launch on August 12 delivered a rapid post-training jump that tied frontier scores at lower cost, highlighting how frequent updates can quickly reshape standings. Traders focus on ongoing model iterations, benchmark volatility across leaderboards like LMSYS Arena or LLM Stats, and the potential for additional releases from these labs plus DeepSeek before year-end to determine which companies secure a #1 ranking by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$118,854End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 currently tops key benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and coding arenas, giving it a strong recent edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol tier and Google’s Gemini 3.x models. xAI’s Grok 4.6 launch on August 12 delivered a rapid post-training jump that tied frontier scores at lower cost, highlighting how frequent updates can quickly reshape standings. Traders focus on ongoing model iterations, benchmark volatility across leaderboards like LMSYS Arena or LLM Stats, and the potential for additional releases from these labs plus DeepSeek before year-end to determine which companies secure a #1 ranking by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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