Legislative inaction on H.R. 1761, the Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act introduced in early 2025, remains the dominant factor behind the 97.5% trader consensus against issuance this year. Federal law still bars portraits of living individuals on U.S. currency, and the measure to create an exception for presidents has not advanced beyond committee referral despite Treasury design preparations and mock-ups. With roughly four months left in 2026, the procedural timeline for passage, enactment, and actual printing by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing makes completion improbable. Traders price in these institutional hurdles while noting narrow pathways such as an unexpected floor vote and rapid implementation that could still shift the outcome before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a $250 bill featuring an image or portrait of Donald Trump is officially issued by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count.
A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count.
A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislative inaction on H.R. 1761, the Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act introduced in early 2025, remains the dominant factor behind the 97.5% trader consensus against issuance this year. Federal law still bars portraits of living individuals on U.S. currency, and the measure to create an exception for presidents has not advanced beyond committee referral despite Treasury design preparations and mock-ups. With roughly four months left in 2026, the procedural timeline for passage, enactment, and actual printing by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing makes completion improbable. Traders price in these institutional hurdles while noting narrow pathways such as an unexpected floor vote and rapid implementation that could still shift the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a $250 bill featuring an image or portrait of Donald Trump is officially issued by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count.
A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count.
A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count.
A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count.
A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Volume
$28,250End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a $250 bill featuring an image or portrait of Donald Trump is officially issued by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count.
A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count.
A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislative inaction on H.R. 1761, the Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act introduced in early 2025, remains the dominant factor behind the 97.5% trader consensus against issuance this year. Federal law still bars portraits of living individuals on U.S. currency, and the measure to create an exception for presidents has not advanced beyond committee referral despite Treasury design preparations and mock-ups. With roughly four months left in 2026, the procedural timeline for passage, enactment, and actual printing by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing makes completion improbable. Traders price in these institutional hurdles while noting narrow pathways such as an unexpected floor vote and rapid implementation that could still shift the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a $250 bill featuring an image or portrait of Donald Trump is officially issued by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count.
A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count.
A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a $250 bill will qualify. Coins, or other denominations of paper currency will not count.
A bill will be considered "officially issued" if the U.S. federal government makes it available for any form of public purchase, order, or distribution. The announcement, proposal, design, or authorization of such a bill without the bill being issued will not count.
A qualifying bill must be legal tender. Commemorative notes produced for a limited production run will qualify, provided they carry legal tender status.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,250End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative inaction on H.R. 1761, the Donald J. Trump $250 Bill Act introduced in early 2025, remains the dominant factor behind the 97.5% trader consensus against issuance this year. Federal law still bars portraits of living individuals on U.S. currency, and the measure to create an exception for presidents has not advanced beyond committee referral despite Treasury design preparations and mock-ups. With roughly four months left in 2026, the procedural timeline for passage, enactment, and actual printing by the Bureau of Engraving and Printing makes completion improbable. Traders price in these institutional hurdles while noting narrow pathways such as an unexpected floor vote and rapid implementation that could still shift the outcome before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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