Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval near 37-38 percent as of mid-August 2026, with the 38.0–38.4 range carrying the highest market probability. This positioning reflects the steady decline observed since early 2025, driven primarily by the ongoing military exchanges with Iran that resumed in mid-July and persistent public concerns over inflation, gas prices, and affordability. Multiple high-quality surveys, including Economist/YouGov and Quinnipiac, have recorded readings in the low-to-mid 30s in recent weeks, yet broader averages incorporating earlier data continue to cluster around 38 percent. Traders appear to weigh these countervailing signals, assigning limited weight to outcomes above 39 or below 37 given the absence of major new catalysts in the immediate 48-hour window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated38.0–38.4 56%
37.5–37.9 25%
37.0–37.4 10%
38.5–38.9 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
<37.0
1%
37.0–37.4
15%
37.5–37.9
16%
38.0–38.4
56%
38.5–38.9
23%
39.0+
2%
38.0–38.4 56%
37.5–37.9 25%
37.0–37.4 10%
38.5–38.9 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
<37.0
$767 Vol.
1%
37.0–37.4
$489 Vol.
15%
37.5–37.9
$670 Vol.
16%
38.0–38.4
$901 Vol.
56%
38.5–38.9
$1,037 Vol.
23%
39.0+
$965 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 14, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval near 37-38 percent as of mid-August 2026, with the 38.0–38.4 range carrying the highest market probability. This positioning reflects the steady decline observed since early 2025, driven primarily by the ongoing military exchanges with Iran that resumed in mid-July and persistent public concerns over inflation, gas prices, and affordability. Multiple high-quality surveys, including Economist/YouGov and Quinnipiac, have recorded readings in the low-to-mid 30s in recent weeks, yet broader averages incorporating earlier data continue to cluster around 38 percent. Traders appear to weigh these countervailing signals, assigning limited weight to outcomes above 39 or below 37 given the absence of major new catalysts in the immediate 48-hour window.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 14, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$4,828End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 14, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval near 37-38 percent as of mid-August 2026, with the 38.0–38.4 range carrying the highest market probability. This positioning reflects the steady decline observed since early 2025, driven primarily by the ongoing military exchanges with Iran that resumed in mid-July and persistent public concerns over inflation, gas prices, and affordability. Multiple high-quality surveys, including Economist/YouGov and Quinnipiac, have recorded readings in the low-to-mid 30s in recent weeks, yet broader averages incorporating earlier data continue to cluster around 38 percent. Traders appear to weigh these countervailing signals, assigning limited weight to outcomes above 39 or below 37 given the absence of major new catalysts in the immediate 48-hour window.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on August 14, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$4,828End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place President Trump’s job approval near 37-38 percent as of mid-August 2026, with the 38.0–38.4 range carrying the highest market probability. This positioning reflects the steady decline observed since early 2025, driven primarily by the ongoing military exchanges with Iran that resumed in mid-July and persistent public concerns over inflation, gas prices, and affordability. Multiple high-quality surveys, including Economist/YouGov and Quinnipiac, have recorded readings in the low-to-mid 30s in recent weeks, yet broader averages incorporating earlier data continue to cluster around 38 percent. Traders appear to weigh these countervailing signals, assigning limited weight to outcomes above 39 or below 37 given the absence of major new catalysts in the immediate 48-hour window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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